The quarterback cupboard is nearly bare in the 2026 NFL Draft. Scouts are largely unimpressed with the prospect pool. Many already are eyeing 2027, when as many as half a dozen QBs could arrive with first-round grades.

But for teams desperate for franchise quarterback help, the class isn't completely devoid of talent. At least 3-4 prospects could develop into good NFL starters if given time, patience, and proper coaching.

"There are 3-4 guys in this class that I think will have good NFL careers," one scout told me. "Do I think any of them will be great? No. They're not 'can't-miss' prospects. But there's talent there if you know what to do with it."

5. Drew Allar, Penn State

Allar arrived at the 2025 season with inflated expectations. He stumbled early, then broke his left ankle in mid-October, derailing what was already a disappointing college trajectory. His junior year showed promise (3,327 yards, 24 touchdowns, 8 interceptions in 16 games), but he regressed sharply as a senior (1,100 yards, 8 touchdowns, 3 interceptions in six games before the injury). He finished with just 26 career starts.

Draft range: Round 3-4. "If a quarterback with his size is still sitting there when Day 3 starts, someone is going to jump up to trade for him," one scout said.

Height/weight: 6-foot-5, 228 pounds

Scout assessment: His calling card is size—every scout raved about his frame and arm strength. But his accuracy is maddeningly inconsistent. He completed just 59.9% of his passes as a sophomore, improved to 66.5% as a junior (when interceptions jumped to 8), then dipped to 64.8% as a senior. The regression before the injury is a major red flag.

"My overall evaluation is that he's good, but probably should have been better," one scout told me. "He's got great size and I love his arm strength. His mobility is good. His accuracy is good, but inconsistent. There's obviously a lot to work with there, but he was up and down his entire college career. If his career was a straight line, he might be a first-rounder based on talent and potential. But he was so all over the place."

Pro comparison: Josh Allen and Joe Flacco. "Big body, big arm, but an erratic arm," one scout said. "If he figures it out, he's got Pro Bowl upside. If he doesn't, he's Drew Lock."

Best fit: Los Angeles Rams. "They're so loaded they can afford to take a shot on him on Day 2. He'd be a steal for Sean McVay. There's so much talent, but it has to be coached right."

4. Carson Beck, Miami

Beck aimed to declare for the 2025 draft but changed course after a disappointing season and elbow surgery for a torn UCL. His decision to transfer to Miami and return paid dividends. He lit up the Hurricanes (72.4% completion, 3,813 yards, 30 touchdowns, 12 interceptions) and led them to the CFP final. Across three college seasons at Georgia and Miami, he threw for 11,239 yards, 82 touchdowns and 30 interceptions in 43 starts.

Draft range: Rounds 3-4. "He's a Day 3 guy, but the lack of quarterbacks gives him a shot to go Day 2," one scout said.

Height/weight: 6-5, 233

Scout assessment: Beck is a classic big, strong pocket passer whose arm strength explodes from a set platform—though some question whether his surgically repaired elbow fully recovered. His fragility under pressure is problematic. When the pass rush breaks down the play, so does his decision-making and ball velocity.

"He's got the look of a classic, big, strong, pocket passer. When he sets and throws, the ball just jumps out of his hand," one scout said. "But he can be rattled. He doesn't move well and when things are off schedule he's not the same. His decision-making when he's rushed isn't always good, and the zip in his fastball can disappear, too."

He also gets an unusual number of passes batted at the line of scrimmage for someone his size.

Pro comparison: Mac Jones and Kenny Pickett—big pocket passers vulnerable to pressure. "The upside to guys like that is they can play like Eli Manning, but they can't process nearly as well as him."

Best fit: Detroit Lions or San Francisco 49ers. "He looks a little like Jared Goff, even though he doesn't have his talent. But that Lions offense is the kind that he needs, with a strong running game and good line. And look what Kyle Shanahan did for Mac Jones. He's the same type of player, and Shanahan doesn't need his quarterbacks to run."

3. Garrett Nussmeier, LSU

Nussmeier entered 2025 as a consensus top-tier prospect. An abdominal injury—which caused "a stabbing pain in my ab every time I went to go throw," he said at the NFL Scouting Combine—decimated his season. He managed 1,927 yards and 12 touchdowns in nine starts, a precipitous drop from his 2024 numbers (4,052 yards, 25 touchdowns, 12 interceptions across a full season). He has 23 career starts.

Draft range: Rounds 3-4

Height/weight: 6-2, 203

Scout assessment: Before the injury, Nussmeier was the class's consensus No. 1. He's a gunslinger with a strong arm capable of delivering strikes from unorthodox angles. But that aggressive mentality cuts both ways—he makes spectacular throws and catastrophic mistakes.

"It's a shame about the injury because I really thought he was the No. 1 guy in the class going into the season. He's got such a strong arm. He's generally pretty accurate. But the injury took it all away," one scout said. "He's a gunslinger, with all the good and bad that comes with that. When he's on and healthy, he can make some incredible plays. But guys who play like that also make some really big mistakes."

Pro comparison: Baker Mayfield and Tony Romo—talented but mercurial arms with a flair for creating off-schedule.

Best fit: Pittsburgh Steelers. "He looks like Mike McCarthy's kind of quarterback. He's not on the same level as Aaron Rodgers or Dak Prescott, but the style and ability to play on the move is the same." Interestingly, Nussmeier's father, Doug, worked as McCarthy's quarterbacks coach in Dallas for three seasons.

2. Ty Simpson, Alabama

Simpson bucked the transfer portal trend, staying at Alabama for four years while awaiting his turn. When he finally got his shot last season, he delivered. The 15-start wonder compiled a 64.5% completion rate for 3,567 yards, 28 touchdowns and just 5 interceptions on a CFP team. He faded down the stretch but remains the class's second-best prospect.

Draft range: Low first round or second round

Height/weight: 6-1, 211

Scout assessment: Simpson needs seasoning badly. Scouts love his intelligence, accuracy and arm strength, but his inexperience is glaring. With only 15 college starts, he requires a team willing to let him develop behind a franchise starter.

"Boy, does he need another year in college. I like everything about him, but he's not ready. He's got to go to a team that has a starter and can take the time to work with him," one scout told me. "He's really smart and has a good arm, but he seems to think it's better than it is. He thinks he can make every throw, but he can't. He's tough and doesn't like to give up on a play. But he'll run himself into trouble trying to figure it out. That's inexperience."

His best stretch came against Georgia, Vanderbilt, Missouri and Tennessee—all top-16 teams at the time. Simpson averaged 267 passing yards with 9 touchdowns and 1 interception in that four-game run. "That was a big-boy stretch," one scout said, "and he was big-time."

Pro comparison: Brock Purdy. "He's a better prospect than Purdy, but the point is that he's got the tools, and if the right guy develops him, he'll be good."

Best fit: Arizona Cardinals under new coach Mike LaFleur, the former Rams offensive coordinator. Simpson fits the system perfectly but likely won't be available at No. 3 overall. The Cardinals would need to trade back into the low 20s of the first round or hope he falls to No. 34. The Steelers at No. 21 present a sleeper option with Mike McCarthy at the helm and Aaron Rodgers aging out.

1. Fernando Mendoza, Indiana

Mendoza is the clear cream of this thin crop. The Heisman Trophy winner and national champion delivered a storybook 2025 season. In his lone year at Indiana after transferring from Cal, he threw for 3,535 yards on a 72% completion rate, adding 41 touchdowns and just 6 interceptions across 16 games. He also rushed for 276 yards and 7 touchdowns.

Draft range: Presumptive No. 1 overall pick (Las Vegas Raiders)

Height/weight: 6-5, 236

Scout assessment: Mendoza is far and away the best prospect in this class—but that's not saying much. One scout bluntly assessed: "He's the best quarterback in this class by far, but it's not a good class. He would've been third among QBs last year and probably fifth or sixth in 2024."

His calling card is pinpoint accuracy backed by exceptional intelligence. He threads needles and dissects defenses with surgical precision. But this mastery evaporates when he leaves the pocket. His completion percentage plummeted to 53.2% outside the pocket. He has no mobility and struggles to create off-schedule.

"He is so smart and so accurate. He can really thread the needle. If you give him time in the pocket, he can pick apart a defense," one scout said. "But that's the key. You've got to give him time. He can't move. He needs to be behind a strong offensive line. He's not going to create off schedule."

Pro comparison: Jared Goff, Kirk Cousins and Matt Ryan—cerebral pocket passers with limited mobility. "Mendoza is more accurate than Goff was in college, though. And he's a much better prospect than Cousins was, but the style is similar."

Best fit: The Raiders will take him No. 1 overall, but one scout bluntly said: "That might be the worst fit for him." Another added: "Too bad he won't drop to the middle of the first round. I'd love to see what a guy like Kevin O'Connell could do with him."