Chicago's QB shows flashes of brilliance but inconsistency is costing the offense

Caleb Williams caught a mistake during the Black Friday game against Philadelphia that Ben Johnson didn't. The Bears' quarterback, recognizing the coach's miscommunication, adjusted the play call on the fly to what Johnson meant to say—not what he said. Then Chicago ran it anyway.

"I screwed up a play call and he made it right for me," Johnson said this week.

The Bears pulled off a 24-15 upset of the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles, but the passing game was ugly. Williams finished 17-of-36 (47.2%) for 154 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Running backs Kyle Monangai (130 rushing yards, 1 TD) and D'Andre Swift (125 rushing yards, 1 TD) carried the load.

Yet that huddle moment—invisible to broadcasters and fans—reveals something crucial about where Williams stands as a quarterback heading into the brutal stretch of Chicago's schedule.

The Real Problem: Williams is Inconsistent

Coach Johnson has been consistent in his weekly assessment: Williams shows promise, but he's a work in progress. Early in September, Johnson talked about teaching the QB to "manipulate the defense a little bit more." Months later, that's still the goal.

"There are ups and there are downs," Johnson acknowledged of Williams' performance.

The Bears are winning in spite of their passing game, not because of it. Johnson was blunt about it after the Eagles win.

"It's not where it needs to be. We're winning in spite of our passing game, not because of it. None of us are pleased with that right now."

He quickly walked it back, but only slightly. The underlying message remained the same: Williams is managing games well, but he's not elevating the offense.

Where Williams Excels

The 24-year-old isn't losing games. He's avoided turnovers consistently and dramatically improved his sack avoidance. His sack percentage dropped from 10.8% in 2024 to 4.6% in 2025. The Bears have won five games decided by four points or fewer—quarterback management matters in those situations.

But the film tells a different story when it comes to driving down the field.

Where He Falls Short

On third and fourth downs, Williams ranks 18th in EPA per dropback. His completion percentage over expected sits at a troubling -11.2, meaning he's completing fewer passes than his underlying metrics suggest he should. He's overthrowing receivers, looking off open targets, and sometimes zeroing in on covered ones.

His rushing instinct has also become a liability. Williams leads the league at 63.6% rushes over expected—meaning he scrambles far more than the situation calls for. But he's only 24th in EPA per carry among quarterbacks. The mobility isn't translating into points.

"Sometimes I get through my reads actually too fast. Maybe because of leverage or maybe because of the covers that I'm seeing, sometimes you just need to hang on," Williams said last month, acknowledging the problem.

What the Bears Have Built Around Him

Johnson has one of the league's best offensive systems and elite pass-catchers: veterans Rome Odunze and DJ Moore, rookies Colston Loveland and Luther Burden, plus tight end Cole Kmet. The defense leads the NFL in takeaways. The run game has strengthened in recent weeks.

Chicago's offense is built to work around Williams, not built on his shoulders.

The Looming Test

The Bears currently sit atop the NFC. But their upcoming schedule is a gauntlet: 49ers, Lions, and two games against the Packers, including Sunday on FOX at 4:25 p.m. ET. Their soft strength of schedule is about to vanish.

That's when the gaps in Williams' game will become impossible to hide.

A Glimmer of What Could Be

During Chicago's fourth-quarter touchdown drive against Philadelphia, Johnson and Williams clicked. On third-and-4, Johnson designed a mesh concept that left Rome Odunze wide open. Williams hit him for the first down. Later, Williams rolled left on play-action and found Cole Kmet for a 28-yard touchdown pass.

For one drive, it looked elite.

"It's so close," Williams said about the passing attack.

Maybe he's right. But for now, he's the one holding the Bears back. The question is whether Johnson can unlock Williams' potential before the schedule demands it—or whether those flashes of brilliance will remain exactly that: flashes.