The Dallas Cowboys (5-5-1) host Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs (6-5) on Thanksgiving Day after pulling off one of the season's most improbable comebacks—erasing a 21-point deficit to stun the reigning Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles this past Sunday.

For Dallas, this is as close to a must-win game as it gets.

The Betting Market Splits on Kansas City

Kansas City opened as a 3.5-point road favorite with the over/under set at 50.5. Multiple sportsbooks have since written Dallas money, tightening the spread to +3, while respected over bets have pushed the total as high as 52.5.

Professional and recreational bettors are aligned differently on this matchup. One Las Vegas bookmaker acknowledged the split: "We'll need Dallas. The public loves to lay Mahomes at short numbers. And we'll knock out boxes of parlays and moneyline parlays if the Cowboys pull the upset."

A $20,000 bet on Dallas +3.5 surfaced at a major book, signaling a likely professionals-versus-recreational dynamic—with sharps backing the Cowboys and casual players loading up on the Chiefs.

The "Chiefs Tax" Is Real

The playoff probability market at DraftKings Sportsbook exposes a stark disparity. Both Dallas and Kansas City sit in 10th place in their respective conferences, yet their playoff odds diverge dramatically:

• Kansas City: -220 to make the playoffs
• Dallas: +700 to make the playoffs

"There's no chance a 6-5 Chargers or 6-5 Steelers team would be -220 to make the playoffs," one analyst noted. "The Chiefs tax is ridiculous."

Mahomes' pedigree and Kansas City's recent track record have clearly inflated their perceived playoff chances beyond what the numbers alone would suggest.

Ohio State-Michigan: Is -10 Enough?

Circa Sports in Las Vegas opened Ohio State -10.5 over Michigan for Big Noon Kickoff, with an over/under of 45.5. Michigan money subsequently drove the line to +10 and dropped the total to 44/43.5, fueled by injury concerns surrounding Ohio State receivers Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate.

Internal sportsbook analysis tells a different story. Wynn Resorts bookmaker Motoi Pearson's true number sits closer to Ohio State -14—suggesting the current -10 is undervalued.

Last weekend against Rutgers, Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin performed noticeably worse without Smith and Tate available. If either receiver clears the injury protocol before Saturday, expect the line to climb sharply.

One bookmaker reported: "We're about even on the side so far. Rivalry games like this always write great two-way handle. We shaded the total low and still wrote a sharp bet Under 44.5."