Sam Darnold, Drake Maye, Matthew Stafford and Jarrett Stidham are the four remaining quarterbacks who will compete for the Lombardi Trophy next month in Santa Clara.

Just like everyone predicted back in August.

The Seahawks are Super Bowl favorites at +150 across sportsbooks, followed by the Rams at +220, Patriots at +250, and longshot Broncos at +1200, with starting quarterback Bo Nix sidelined after suffering a broken ankle last week.

Seattle and Los Angeles will represent the NFC in a third matchup.

Seattle's Defense: Historic and Dominant

Seattle and LA Part III will face off in what figures to be a defensive showcase. The Seahawks' defense has reached historic levels this season.

"I'm thinking rock fight," Fantasy Life betting expert Ian Hartitz said. "When you face a team for the third time, those guys know everything there is to know."

The Seahawks lead the NFL in fewest yards per carry and net yards per pass attempt. According to Hartitz, only five defenses this millennium have accomplished that feat: the 2025 Seahawks, 2015 Broncos, 2010 and 2018 Steelers, and 2000 Ravens.

"Their ability to wreak havoc and get all this pressure without needing to blitz makes it so tough. I lean toward Seattle in a low-scoring affair."

Betting the Matchups

The Rams present an intriguing betting opportunity as a team that can be moved in teasers from +2.5 to +8.5 through standard teaser spreads.

"The first two meetings came down to the wire and I expect nothing to change Sunday."

Rams +2.5 to Broncos +11 is the recommended teaser play.

Stidham's Staggering Odds

The betting market is pricing the drop-off from Bo Nix to Jarrett Stidham, the 29-year-old career backup, at around six points.

Hartitz questions that valuation. The market treats the gap from Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Lamar Jackson to their backups as seven points—placing a rookie who just suffered an ankle fracture on par with three of the league's elite signal-callers.

Patriots' Surprising Form

New England has been the league's best cover team at 14-5 ATS, and an impressive 7-1 ATS on the road. The public will pound the Patriots on straight bets and parlays based on that track record.

"Drake Maye doesn't have any weaknesses. It's driving me crazy. If you need an underdog to pull an upset, though, you want it to be at home with a dominant defense that can get after the passer and an offensive line that can instill their will. I've got the Patriots winning, but the Broncos can keep it close."

Prop Play: Darnold Under 235.5

Hartitz's favorite prop targets Sam Darnold Under 235.5 passing yards.

"Seattle could build a lead and coast through it. Darnold hasn't hit 200 in the last three games. If we get a shootout, it'll be bad, but with Kenneth Walker and the run game grooving, Seattle might lean in there."

Super Bowl MVP Betting Edge

Puka Nacua, the Rams' star receiver, sits at 17/1 odds for Super Bowl MVP. The play offers value before odds are slashed in half if Los Angeles advances.

A critical advantage: shop around. Sportsbooks price Super Bowl MVP bets differently based on their liabilities. TreVeyon Henderson illustrates the gap—55/1 at DraftKings, 65/1 at Caesars, 70/1 at BetMGM, and 80/1 at FanDuel.

Why take 55-to-1 when the same bet pays 80-to-1 elsewhere?

"Every cent counts in this racket."