The New England Patriots bottomed out in 2023 and '24, winning just four games each season and finishing last in the AFC East. Then they engineered a stunning reversal in 2025, capturing 14 regular-season wins and claiming their first division title since 2019. They went on to reach the Super Bowl.

It was the biggest rags-to-riches story of the season—but hardly unique. The NFL has seen this script before. The 2025 Patriots became the 26th team since 2002 to jump from last place to first in a single year.

The question now: Which 2026 team will follow that trajectory?

Below, ranked by likelihood of winning their division, are the seven teams that finished in last place in 2025:

7. Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals face an impossible task. They don't have a clear QB1, and they play in the toughest division in football. The Seattle Seahawks won the Super Bowl last season. The Los Angeles Rams, which fielded the league's best offense in 2025, reached the NFC Championship Game before losing to Seattle. The San Francisco 49ers have won at least 12 games in three of the past four seasons.

Arizona has intriguing offensive pieces—running back Jeremiyah Love (No. 3 overall pick) and third-round QB acquisition Carson Beck from Miami—plus new head coach Mike LaFleur, the former Rams offensive coordinator. But competing for the NFC West crown in 2026? That's unrealistic.

6. New York Jets

The Jets upgraded at quarterback with Geno Smith and beefed up around star receiver Garrett Wilson with first-round tight end Kenyon Sadiq and second-round receiver Omar Cooper Jr. They added edge rusher David Bailey (No. 2 overall) and strengthened the secondary with five-time All-Pro safety Minkah Fitzpatrick and second-round pick D'Angelo Ponds.

But challenging for the AFC East title is a stretch. The Bills still have Josh Allen. The Patriots remain one of the NFL's best teams despite head coach Mike Vrabel's off-field issues. The Jets have a legitimate shot at climbing out of the cellar if the Dolphins prove to be the weakest team in the division.

5. Las Vegas Raiders

Brighter days may arrive in Las Vegas. The Raiders have quarterback security with Kirk Cousins and No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza. The revamped defense still boasts five-time Pro Bowl edge rusher Maxx Crosby after his trade to Baltimore fell through.

The team should be more competitive in 2026. But the AFC West features three playoff-caliber teams—the Denver Broncos, who were one win away from the Super Bowl, and the Kansas City Chiefs with Patrick Mahomes returning. The Raiders making noise would be a shock.

4. Cleveland Browns

With star quarterbacks Lamar Jackson (Ravens) and Joe Burrow (Bengals) healthy, the Browns can't realistically compete for the AFC North title. But if Cleveland gets competent QB play—Deshaun Watson has emerged as the favorite over Shedeur Sanders—this team becomes dangerous. The wide receiver and offensive line rooms have been revamped, and the Browns still field one of the best defenses in football.

3. Tennessee Titans

The AFC South's top tier looks fragile. The Jacksonville Jaguars face a brutal first-place schedule and lost key starters like linebacker Devin Lloyd and running back Travis Etienne Jr. in free agency. The Houston Texans still have offensive questions despite boasting one of the NFL's best defenses.

Tennessee has raised its floor substantially under new coach Robert Saleh. The defense has a shot to be strong, particularly along the line. QB Cam Ward has respectable pass-catchers around him. If Ward makes a big Year 2 jump, the Titans become a wild card.

2. New York Giants

John Harbaugh brings a Super Bowl pedigree to New York. The legendary coach inherited a talented roster and added two top-10 picks: linebacker Arvell Reese and offensive lineman Francis Mauigoa. He's also brought in two former Ravens—All-Pro fullback Patrick Ricard and tight end Isaiah Likely—to reshape the culture.

The NFC East is vulnerable. The Philadelphia Eagles could step back. The Dallas Cowboys' defense is uncertain. The Washington Commanders are trying to recapture their 2024 magic. With one of the NFL's best coaches, the Giants can contend for the division title if QB Jaxson Dart makes a second-year leap.

1. New Orleans Saints

No division is more wide open than the NFC South, which had three eight-win teams in 2025. If QB Tyler Shough takes a step in Year 2, New Orleans' possibilities expand dramatically. No. 8 overall pick Jordyn Tyson is expected to be a top-end receiver alongside star Chris Olave. Free-agent acquisition Travis Etienne Jr. brings one of the NFL's better running backs into the fold.

The Saints have the clearest path to division gold.

The Dark Horse: Detroit Lions

The Lions won't finish last in the NFC North again. They weren't even bad in 2025—nine wins put them above .500. With a fourth-place schedule, it feels inevitable that Dan Campbell and company climb back into NFC contention with a double-digit win season.

The competition is weakening. The Chicago Bears, last year's division winners, face a brutal first-place schedule. The Green Bay Packers grapple with injuries to edge rusher Micah Parsons and tight end Tucker Kraft plus the loss of receiver Romeo Doubs in free agency. The Minnesota Vikings don't even know who their starting quarterback will be.

Watch out for the Lions.