Lions Face 3% Playoff Odds Against Vikings in Christmas Collapse
Once dominant, the Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings have both fallen from grace, facing irrelevance and uphill battles to the playoffs as their rosters struggle with injuries and roster changes.
Detroit and Minnesota, division rivals who combined for 29 wins last season, have spiraled into irrelevance heading into Thursday's matchup.
The Detroit Lions can't win the NFC North after taking the past two titles. The Minnesota Vikings were mathematically eliminated from playoff contention before they took the field two weeks ago.
The collapse is stunning. Last season, the Lions reached the NFC Championship Game and posted a franchise-record 15 wins. The Vikings won 14 games with seven Pro Bowl selections. Now both teams are fighting for scraps in Week 17.
The Lions (8-7) have a mathematical lifeline—barely. Their playoff odds sit around 3%. The roadmap is brutally simple: Beat Minnesota on Thursday and Chicago next week, then pray Green Bay loses to Baltimore on Saturday and Minnesota in Week 18.
Detroit lost at home to Pittsburgh last week for its first two-game losing streak in more than three years. The drought ended a remarkable streak—the Lions had won 15 straight times after a loss, matching the NFL's longest such streak set by Denver (1984-1988) and Baltimore (2009-2012).
"We haven't had that feeling. It's creeping in on us now. We've got to find a way," quarterback Jared Goff said.
The Running Game Collapsed
The rushing attack that powered Detroit's dominance has evaporated. The offensive line lost two starters who weren't adequately replaced, and injuries have ravaged the position group. Running backs Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery have suffered as a result, dragging down the play-action passing game Goff executes so effectively.
The numbers tell the story: Last week, Detroit managed just 15 rushing yards—their lowest total since 2016. The Lions are 0-6 this season when they fail to reach 100 rushing yards.
"It's very difficult to control anything if you can't control the run game," coach Dan Campbell said.
The defense, meanwhile, has disintegrated. With three secondary starters on injured reserve—including safeties Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph—Pittsburgh carved up Detroit for three 45-yard touchdowns last week: two rushing, one passing.
Minnesota Turns to Brosmer Again
The Vikings (7-8) will start undrafted rookie Max Brosmer for the second time, a telling indicator of how badly this season has deteriorated.
Brosmer got a brutal debut assignment on November 30 against Seattle's elite defense with both J.J. McCarthy (concussion) and Carson Wentz (shoulder surgery) unavailable. He threw four interceptions in a 26-0 shutout—Minnesota's first in 18 years.
This time, McCarthy is sidelined by a hairline fracture in his throwing hand, and Brosmer faces a far more vulnerable Lions defense at home. Experience from his baptism-by-fire in Seattle should serve him better.
"My dream for a long time has been to play in the NFL, and for me mentally to define myself by one game wouldn't be fair to the younger me watching me play football in the NFL," Brosmer said.
"It's all about finding little ways to improve on your craft and improve with the guys you're playing with. It's a good feeling to be in the huddle with the guys and see the fruits of your labor."
Brosmer relieved McCarthy in the second half against the New York Giants and helped the Vikings secure their third straight win without the turnovers that buried them in Seattle.
The Pro Bowl Collapse
The Vikings were one of only three NFL teams without a Pro Bowl selection—just the third time in franchise history. In 1983 and 2014, Minnesota suffered the same ignominy.
Last season told a different story entirely: seven Vikings made the Pro Bowl while the team won 14 games.