The Detroit Lions (7-5) are positioned as 3-point favorites over the Dallas Cowboys (6-5-1) in a Thursday night showdown that carries serious playoff implications. The matchup tips off at 8:15 p.m. ET from Ford Field on Amazon Prime Video, with an over/under set at 54.5 points.

Detroit enters riding a dominant defensive season, allowing just 22.8 points per game while averaging 29.2 points per outing. The Cowboys, fresh off a three-game winning streak, carry a glaring weakness: their defense has surrendered 28.5 points per game, ranking 31st in the league.

The Talent Gap

The Lions' offensive firepower poses a significant threat to Dallas' vulnerable secondary. Jared Goff has been exceptional with 3,025 passing yards and 25 touchdowns (second in the NFL). Running back Jahmyr Gibbs has been a revelation with 1,019 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns, averaging a league-leading 5.8 yards per attempt. Wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown boasts 884 receiving yards and 9 touchdowns, though he's listed as questionable with an ankle injury.

Dallas counters with elite offensive talent. Dak Prescott has thrown for 3,261 yards and 25 touchdowns (both ranking second in the NFL). George Pickens leads the receiving corps with 1,142 yards and 8 touchdowns—second in the NFL at his position. CeeDee Lamb adds another reliable target with 744 yards and 3 touchdowns through eight games. The Cowboys' offense ranks second in scoring at 29.3 points per game.

But talent alone won't overcome Detroit's defensive strength. The Lions' defense ranks 15th in points allowed and feature a dominant pass rush led by Aidan Hutchinson's 8.5 sacks and linebacker Jack Campbell's 110 tackles.

Recent History Favors Dallas

Despite the Lions' superior positioning, Dallas holds a 4-1 record against Detroit in their last five matchups. In those five games, Detroit outscored the Cowboys 123-114, suggesting close contests.

Betting Breakdown

Detroit is 6-6-0 against the spread this season but has been sharp when favored: 5-2 ATS when laying 3 or more points. The Lions have won 75% of their games as moneyline favorites (6-2). Their implied win probability stands at 62.4%.

Dallas carries a 7-5-0 ATS record and has shown resilience: 4-1 ATS in games where they're 3-point underdogs or more. The Cowboys have won 50% of their underdog games this season (3-6).

The Pick

Against the spread: Lions (-3)

Over/Under: Over (54.5)

Prediction: Lions 31, Cowboys 24

The Lions' defensive pressure should prove too much for Dallas' porous secondary, despite the Cowboys' offensive firepower. Both teams capable of scoring puts this contest in over territory.

Game Details

• Date: Thursday, December 4, 2025
• Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
• Venue: Ford Field, Detroit, Michigan
• Broadcast: Amazon Prime Video