With the 2026 NFL schedule locked in, 14 teams will make the playoffs — but the real question is how the postseason will play out. This is a full simulation from wild-card weekend through Super Bowl LXI, complete with projected scores at every stage.

AFC Playoff Standings

1. Denver Broncos (No. 1 seed)
2. Cincinnati Bengals (No. 2 seed)
3. Jacksonville Jaguars (No. 5 seed)
4. Buffalo Bills (No. 6 seed)
5. Baltimore Ravens (No. 7 seed)
6. Los Angeles Chargers (Wild Card)
7. New England Patriots (Wild Card)

Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs miss the playoffs entirely. The AFC West is loaded — the Raiders should improve drastically — and the Chiefs face three obstacles: Mahomes recovering from an ACL injury sustained in December, a talent-depleted roster, and the controversial trade of cornerback Trent McDuffie this offseason.

The AFC South comes down to Jacksonville versus Houston. The Jaguars get the edge. Coach Liam Coen and QB Trevor Lawrence found something last season, while Texans QB C.J. Stroud collapsed in the playoffs.

The Bengals invested heavily in defense this offseason and face an easy schedule. If they avoid the slow starts that have plagued them under coach Zac Taylor, they should win at least three of their first five games.

Don't count on the Pittsburgh Steelers or Aaron Rodgers. The Indianapolis Colts and Daniel Jones, returning from a torn right Achilles tendon, have even less to offer.

NFC Playoff Standings

1. San Francisco 49ers (No. 1 seed)
2. Detroit Lions (No. 2 seed)
3. Philadelphia Eagles (No. 5 seed)
4. New Orleans Saints (No. 6 seed)
5. Seattle Seahawks (No. 7 seed)
6. Los Angeles Rams (Wild Card)
7. Chicago Bears (Wild Card)

The Green Bay Packers — elite as they are — don't make the cut. The Washington Commanders also fall short, despite QB Jayden Daniels' potential to spark a surge if healthy.

The Chicago Bears get the nod over more established competition. Yes, regression typically follows the close-game wins that got Chicago to 11-6 last season. But head coach Ben Johnson's plan to prevent that slide is sound. Third-year QB Caleb Williams should take a major step forward. Most critically, defensive coordinator Dennis Allen's unit will improve drastically — exactly what this team needs to maintain their record.

The NFC West remains a toss-up. The 49ers get the edge due to a weak schedule and a solid free-agency class headlined by veteran receiver Mike Evans. But the Rams or Seahawks could just as easily own the top seed.

The Saints leap to the top of the NFC South, not the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Coach Kellen Moore got the New Orleans offense humming last year — granted, against weak defenses — and the Saints' additions (receiver Jordyn Tyson, guard David Edwards, RB Travis Etienne) should fuel continued momentum. Their schedule is laughably easy.

AFC Wild-Card Round

Bye: Denver Broncos

Bengals over Patriots, 31-20

Chargers over Jaguars, 17-14

Bills over Ravens, 40-38

The Patriots won't have the endurance this year. Despite improving over last postseason, they're primed for regression and a first-round exit.

Josh Allen is 2-0 against Lamar Jackson in the playoffs. The Bills' new-ish defensive identity makes them dangerous, even in a shootout.

The Chargers pull off an upset, powered by their run game — something new offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel will turn into a weapon.

NFC Wild-Card Round

Bye: San Francisco 49ers

Bears over Lions, 18-16

Rams over Eagles, 24-20

Seahawks over Saints, 23-10

It would be crazy to see a road-team sweep in the NFC. The Saints won't advance. The Lions likely padded their record against a weak schedule, making them ripe for upset. Ben Johnson knows Detroit's system and personnel inside and out — he was the offensive coordinator before taking the Chicago job. Even with the Lions executing two-point conversions, coach Dan Campbell can't overcome Johnson's insider knowledge.

AFC Divisional Round

Broncos over Chargers, 13-10

Bengals over Bills, 45-38

Joe Burrow takes the next step. Cincinnati was a few points away from a Super Bowl win just years ago. Burrow hasn't changed — his commitment to football remains absolute. This is his season. The Bengals finally give him proper support, and he dispatches Allen in an offensive shootout.

NFC Divisional Round

49ers over Bears, 35-24

Rams over Seahawks, 27-24

Los Angeles gets its revenge on Seattle. The Rams were one play away from winning in Seattle last season. The Seahawks face a regression year as they restock the defense — they'd likely be one-and-done against anyone but an NFC South team.

AFC Championship

Broncos over Bengals, 20-13

Bo Nix didn't break his ankle in last year's divisional round, and the Broncos would've made the Super Bowl. They might've made it anyway if Denver's freak snowstorm hadn't arrived so suddenly and intensely. With Nix healthy, Denver is the only great team in an otherwise weak AFC. They get their second chance and convert it. Cincinnati's cornerback questions prove too severe.

NFC Championship

49ers over Rams, 31-30

San Francisco edges Los Angeles at home, capitalizing on their NFC bye and home-field advantage. The 49ers are a deep team with elite players at premium positions and a relatively easy schedule outside the division. This could be their year. Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford watch from the sideline as their second Super Bowl run falls just short.

Super Bowl LXI

Broncos over 49ers, 29-28

A strange matchup of quarterbacks: Bo Nix versus Brock Purdy. A logical matchup of coaches: Sean Payton versus Kyle Shanahan. An excellent matchup of defenses.

Payton and Nix are only getting better at understanding each other. Broncos offensive coordinator Davis Webb will be a hot head-coaching candidate next offseason. Receiver Jaylen Waddle — acquired from Miami — is the perfect addition to Denver's offense. Don't sleep on rookie tight end Justin Joly either.

Denver's offensive firepower proves too much. The 49ers' aging receiving corps — Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, and Mike Evans — show wear and tear. Denver's young, fast defense takes advantage.

Payton earns his second Super Bowl victory. On the game-winning drive, the Broncos convert a two-point conversion rather than settling for overtime. It's vintage Payton — and vintage Nix, who looks like Saints legend Drew Brees for one shining night.