The NFL released its full 2026 schedule Thursday, laying out all 272 regular-season matchups with specific dates and times. With the complete slate now public, we can begin forecasting how teams will fare based on strength of schedule, roster moves, and recent performance trends.

Full disclaimer: last year's predictions were mixed at best. I predicted the Kansas City Chiefs would collapse, the San Francisco 49ers would bounce back, and the Washington Commanders would reach the Super Bowl. The Commanders did make it, but the Chiefs still won it all, and I also badly whiffed on Pete Carroll leading the Las Vegas Raiders to respectability. So take these with appropriate salt.

Bengals Make a Deep Playoff Run

Joe Burrow's time to shine—finally—has arrived.

The Cincinnati Bengals boast the third-easiest schedule based on projected opponent win totals. Yet they finished 6-11 last year despite similar scheduling luck, hamstrung by Burrow's injury woes. The star quarterback managed just eight games in 2025, forcing Cincinnati to lean on Joe Flacco while the defense surrendered 30-plus points repeatedly.

The offseason reset was aggressive. Cincinnati traded with the New York Giants to acquire Pro Bowl defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence. They signed defensive tackle Jonathan Allen, edge rusher Boye Mafe, and safeties Bryan Cook, Kyle Dugger, and Ja'Sir Taylor in free agency. The draft haul added defensive linemen Cashius Howell and Landon Robinson, plus cornerback Tacario Davis. The defense finished dead last (31st) in total defense last season—it has nowhere to go but up.

The Bengals possess a massive advantage: continuity. All three AFC North rivals hired new head coaches—Mike McCarthy (Pittsburgh), Jesse Minter (Baltimore), Todd Monken (Cleveland). Cincinnati also plays nine games against teams with first-time head coaches this season, including the Miami Dolphins, Atlanta Falcons, and Tennessee Titans.

The offense remains stacked. All 11 starters return from one of football's most explosive attacks. If Burrow stays healthy, this is the Bengals' best shot at a Super Bowl appearance since their 2021 season run. They even have an experienced Super Bowl-winning backup in Flacco if the unthinkable happens.

Dolphins Go Winless on the Road

Miami's rebuild will be ugly. New general manager Jon-Eric Sullivan and head coach Jeff Hafley are building for the future, not this season, with Malik Willis as the new starting quarterback.

Expect the Dolphins to go 0-for on the road—a brutal prediction, but the schedule and roster support it.

Miami's road slate is brutal: games at New England, Buffalo, Denver, San Francisco, and Green Bay. That's tough enough. But consider this: the Dolphins were 1-7 in games at 45 degrees or colder under former head coach Mike McDaniel. Four of those aforementioned road games occur in November or later. The Raiders, Jets, and Colts offer potential wins, but Miami traded away its offensive firepower this offseason—Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Minkah Fitzpatrick, Bradley Chubb, and Tua Tagovailoa all departed.

For perspective: only one team has gone winless on the road in the last four seasons. The last time Miami achieved that dubious feat was 2007, when they finished 1-15 under Cam Cameron. They hired Tony Sparano the next year and immediately went 11-5. This season, though? The Dolphins won't win anywhere but home.

Patriots Experience Super Bowl Hangover

The New England Patriots rode the third-easiest schedule in the league last season straight to a Super Bowl appearance under first-year head coach Mike Vrabel. Drake Maye played like an MVP candidate in his second season, and the franchise reclaimed its perch atop the NFL.

But here's the problem: the Patriots faced only three playoff teams during the regular season—the fewest in the league—and went 1-2 against them. That schedule advantage evaporates this year.

Vrabel now confronts off-field distractions. More critically, the Patriots were dominated at the line of scrimmage in their Super Bowl loss to the Seattle Seahawks—an ugly, physical defeat. After enjoying the shortest travel schedule last year (never going further than New Orleans), the Patriots will log the fifth-most miles this season at 27,590.

The addition of A.J. Brown at receiver should help an offense lacking explosive plays after trading away Stefon Diggs. But the Patriots face the sixth-hardest schedule and nine teams that made the playoffs last season. Only Seattle (10) faces more playoff teams.

History isn't kind. The last two Super Bowl losers—the 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs—failed to post winning records the following season. Expect the Patriots to join that trend.

NFC South Crown Returns to New Orleans

The New Orleans Saints have their franchise quarterback: Tyler Shough. The Louisville product stepped into the starting role midseason and finished 5-4, convincing the organization that a rebuild centered around him could work.

The Saints attacked the offseason with that conviction. They drafted receiver Jordyn Tyson in the first round, tight end Oscar Delp in the third, and added receiver Bryce Lane. Free agency brought running back Travis Etienne, tight end Noah Fant, and offensive lineman David Edwards to bolster the support cast.

The scheduling breaks favor New Orleans. The Saints own the second-easiest schedule based on projected opponent wins. They play in the NFC South, one of football's weakest divisions—the Carolina Panthers won it last year at 8-9. New Orleans faces the fewest playoff teams this season at just five.

The Saints finished 7-10 last year. With continuity, talent, and a soft schedule, expect them to claim the division title—their first since Drew Brees was under center.

Rams Decline Under Father Time

Yes, the Los Angeles Rams are the betting favorite to win the Super Bowl. Yes, Matthew Stafford won his first MVP Award last season. Yes, everything seems set up perfectly.

But Father Time remains undefeated.

Stafford is 38 years old. He played all 17 games for the first time since 2021, a grueling accomplishment. He battled back issues during training camp last year. Can he maintain that MVP-level performance and stay healthy? The pattern is troubling: in three of four seasons following years when Stafford won double-digit games, his teams finished below .500. The only exception was last year's 12-5 finish that put them a field goal away from the Super Bowl.

The backup situation is worse. The Rams dumped experienced veteran Jimmy Garoppolo. Their replacement is first-round pick Ty Simpson—a prospect some league scouts told me shouldn't have been selected in the opening round.

Structurally, everything opposes the Rams this season. They face the fifth-hardest schedule with nine playoff teams on the slate. Those final three weeks? Matchups against defending champion Seattle twice. Los Angeles travels the second-most miles in the league (35,487), beginning with a season-opening trip to Australia to face San Francisco. That opens a brutal five-game stretch including road games at Denver and Philadelphia, plus a home date with Buffalo.

Here's the damning data: teams with five of the six hardest schedules last year finished below their projected win totals. History says the Rams will stumble.