The playoff race tightens. With teams' postseason hopes hanging on the next few weeks, here are the best bets for this week.

Cowboys @ Lions

Dallas arrives as a dangerous team—winners of three straight, including victories over the Eagles and Chiefs. Their offense runs on all cylinders with quarterback Dak Prescott distributing to receivers CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens. The defense has improved with the acquisitions of Quinnen Williams and the return of linebacker DeMarvion Overshown.

But there's a glaring weakness: Dallas ranks 31st in defensive DVOA.

Detroit enters at 7-5 after a Thanksgiving loss to Green Bay at home. The Lions rank fourth in team DVOA—fifth on offense, sixth on defense. But efficiency masks real problems. Without offensive coordinator Ben Johnson calling plays, the offense has deteriorated. The offensive line has declined. Injuries pile up: tight end Sam LaPorta is out for the season, receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown is questionable.

The defense is inconsistent—holding Philadelphia to 16 points, then getting shredded by the Giants and Packers in consecutive weeks.

The Over looks tempting but carries too much chalk. Both teams need this win. Both have favorable matchups. The number is inflated. Target props instead.

With LaPorta sidelined and St. Brown potentially unavailable, running back Jahmyr Gibbs becomes Detroit's offensive lifeline. The Cowboys' defense ranks 29th against opposing running back receptions. Expect Goff to target Gibbs repeatedly.

Prescott's completion total sits at 23.5. Over the last month, he's hovered around this mark, going over three times. The Lions may be missing secondary depth. Pickens, Lamb, and tight end Jake Ferguson all register high catch rates. If this game becomes a shootout—likely given the matchups—Prescott will throw far more than Goff, who can lean on the run.

PICK: Jahmyr Gibbs Over 4.5 receptions

PICK: Dak Prescott Over 23.5 passing completions

Texans @ Chiefs

Kansas City's offense faces a nightmare scenario.

Left tackle Josh Simmons is on injured reserve. Right tackle Jawaan Taylor left Thursday's game with an elbow injury. Pro Bowl guard Trey Smith has missed time. Taylor and Smith are game-time decisions at best.

Patrick Mahomes will be running for his life.

The Texans boast one of the league's elite—maybe the elite—defensive lines. Defensive ends Danielle Hunter (11 sacks) and Will Anderson Jr. (10.5 sacks) will face Kansas City backup tackles Jaylen Moore and Wanya Morris. Moore is starter-caliber. Morris is not.

The Chiefs' run game isn't explosive. Houston will ignore the ground attack entirely, forcing Mahomes and his receivers to manufacture offense. That won't happen.

The last time Kansas City's offense faced a defense of this caliber—the Broncos—the Chiefs scored 19 points. Expect similar results.

PICK: Chiefs team total Under