The NFL season has whittled down from 32 teams to four. This weekend's conference championship games will determine who advances to the Super Bowl as brutal winter weather settles across parts of the country.

The AFC Championship marks a historic break in the league's recent dominance. For the first time since the 2010 season—when Mark Sanchez and the Jets lost to Ben Roethlisberger's Steelers—neither Patrick Mahomes nor Tom Brady will play in the AFC title game. Yet the streak of Chiefs or Patriots participation continues: either team has appeared in every AFC Championship since 2010. That streak extends into this year.

AFC Championship: No. 2 Patriots @ No. 1 Broncos

Demario Douglas Anytime TD Scorer (+425)

Douglas scored the first touchdown last week in the Patriots' divisional-round victory over the Texans, hauling in a deflected fourth-down pass. The week prior, he drew an end-zone target against the Chargers that sailed incomplete.

Teammate Kayshon Boutte has emerged as a deep playoff threat with a remarkable touchdown catch last week, but expect Broncos cornerback Patrick Surtain II to key on him. Douglas presents better value. If you want the conservative play, bet his rushing yards or receptions over closer to game time. For the aggressive: Douglas sits at +2200 at FanDuel to score the game's first touchdown again.

The matchup favors Douglas. Expect a bigger role than anticipated.

NFC Championship: No. 5 Rams @ No. 1 Seahawks

Sam Darnold Under 5.5 Rushing Yards

Darnold's oblique injury dominated pregame talk last week against the 49ers. He showed no visible discomfort, but the lopsided game demanded little from him. One stat stands out: zero rushing attempts for zero yards.

Even before the injury, Darnold barely ran the ball. His last game with 10+ rushing yards came December 7 against the Falcons. Banged up, facing a strong Rams defense, expect minimal rushing production.

Super Bowl Futures: Rams over Broncos Exact Result (+750)

The value is exceptional here. The Broncos were expected favorites over the Patriots before Bo Nix's injury. With backup Jarrett Stidham stepping in, the line has overcorrected.

Denver possesses a solid supporting roster and a Super Bowl-winning head coach who previously thrived when Drew Brees missed games with the Saints in 2019.

If the Broncos advance, they likely face the Rams—who beat Seattle in their first meeting, then blew a 16-point fourth-quarter lead in their second. This time, the Rams have Davante Adams in the lineup, a difference from their last matchup.

A Broncos-Rams Super Bowl matchup heavily favors Los Angeles. Holding a +750 ticket in that scenario becomes an excellent investment. Taking a shot at this underdog path on Sunday represents smart value.