The NFL season is five months away. That's plenty of time to lock in bets on next year's win totals—and two quarterback moves have me ready to commit money to the market.

Minnesota Vikings Over 8.5 wins

The Vikings won nine games in 2025 despite chronic quarterback dysfunction. That problem is fixed. They've acquired Kyler Murray from the Arizona Cardinals—a quarterback with genuine talent who's substantially better than what Minnesota had in the lineup.

Here's what the Vikings have in place:

• Head coach Kevin O'Connell, a play-caller operating one of the NFL's finest coaching staffs
• A solid offensive line
• Justin Jefferson at receiver
• A defense that finished third in DVOA last season and second the year before

The Vikings' offense should land in the upper half of the league, possibly cracking the top 10. Their defense shows no signs of regression.

Minnesota's schedule breaks favorably. Yes, they face a brutal division—the Lions, Packers, and Bears account for six toss-up games. But they play the AFC East (with gimmes against the Jets and Dolphins), the NFC South, and individual matchups against the Colts, Commanders, and 49ers. The path to double-digit wins exists.

PICK: Vikings Over 8.5 wins

New York Jets Under 5.5 wins

I'm out on the Jets after they signed Geno Smith at quarterback.

Smith left Seattle and the Seahawks won a Super Bowl without him. He went to Vegas and the Raiders landed the first overall pick. While Smith isn't responsible for those outcomes, the pattern is instructive: teams perform better after his departure.

The Jets' offensive roster—Breece Hall at running back and Garrett Wilson at receiver—is respectable. But Frank Reich is calling plays. His track record screams concern: the 2023 Panthers ranked 31st in DVOA; the 2022 Colts ranked dead last at 32nd. This offense won't be good.

Head coach Aaron Glenn arrives with a defensive pedigree. Yet his defense ranked 31st in DVOA last season and recorded zero interceptions. There's a fundamental principle at play: when a head coach specializes in either offense or defense, that unit must perform well in year one—or show meaningful improvement. Glenn's defense shows no signs of either. The Ben Johnson Bears comparison doesn't apply here.

The draft rumors about the Jets grabbing Alabama's Ty Simpson in the second first-round pick make matters worse. Single-year starting college quarterbacks have a dismal NFL success rate. Adding Simpson won't produce wins in 2026.

The Jets face a punishing schedule. Expect 2-4 in the division, likely 1-7 across the AFC West and NFC North, with 50-50 matchups against the Cardinals, Browns, and Titans. That math doesn't add up to six wins.

PICK: Jets Under 5.5 wins