Oddsmakers View NFC Championship as the Real Super Bowl
The Rams-Seahawks rematch is considered the real championship game by bettors, overshadowing the AFC title matchup between the Patriots and Broncos.
The Super Bowl isn't until Feb. 8 at Levi's Stadium, but don't tell that to the betting world. The real championship game, in the eyes of oddsmakers and sharp bettors, happens Sunday night in Seattle.
Caesars Sports head of football trading Joey Feazel put it bluntly: "This is the Super Bowl. The Rams and the Seahawks are the top two teams in our power rankings. We don't see the AFC as being at the same level."
Seahawks-Rams Rematch Dominates the Action
The Rams-Seahawks matchup—scheduled for 6:30 p.m. ET on FOX as the second game on Championship Sunday—commands far more betting intrigue than the AFC title game.
Los Angeles and Seattle played twice this season in nail-biters that both split the results in unpredictable ways. The Seahawks won 38-37 as 1.5-point home favorites in Week 16. The Rams won 21-19 as 3-point home favorites in Week 11. In both games, the road team covered the spread.
"Those were two of our most-bet games of the season," Feazel said.
Top-seeded Seattle enters the matchup with a sterling 15-3 straight-up record and a profitable 13-5 against the spread, riding an eight-game win streak. The Seahawks demolished the 49ers 41-6 in the Divisional Round as 7-point home favorites.
The Rams, seeded fifth, come in at 14-5 straight-up and 11-8 against the spread. They've clawed through two brutal road playoff wins: 34-31 over the Panthers as 10.5-point favorites and a 20-17 overtime victory over the Bears as 3.5-point favorites.
The Betting Line Movement
Caesars opened Seattle at -2.5 against Los Angeles. The spread briefly climbed to -3 on Monday before settling back to -2.5, where it remained Thursday.
Feazel indicated the money flow reveals a split decision among bettors. Public money is flooding in on the Seahawks via both spread and moneyline, but sharp money is quietly positioning on the Rams.
"Right now, we're seeing a lot of Seahawks money come in, on both the spread and the moneyline. But I don't anticipate this getting back to 3," Feazel said. "If anything, I see sharper money coming in on the Rams, closer to game time. We'll likely need the Rams on Sunday night."
Professional bettor Randy McKay sided with Seattle, locking in -2.5 early with the expectation the line would climb to -3 and stick. He cited Seattle's superior rest—one fewer game played—and a better injury report compared to the Rams, who just battled the Bears in overtime.
Patriots Favored Despite Broncos' Injury Blow
The AFC title game shapes up far differently. The Patriots opened as 4.5-point road favorites, but the injury to Denver QB Bo Nix sent shockwaves through the market. Oddsmakers initially ballooned the line to -5.5, expecting Nix's absence to be catastrophic. The spread has since toggled between -5 and -4.5, settling at -4.5 by Thursday afternoon.
New England comes in as a machine: 16-3 straight-up and 14-5 against the spread, with five consecutive straight-up and spread-covering wins. The Patriots buried Houston 28-16 as 3.5-point home favorites in the Divisional Round.
Denver, at 15-3 straight-up, has been far less reliable against the spread (8-10 ATS). The Broncos did cover last week, squeaking past Buffalo 33-30 in overtime as 1.5-point home favorites.
The Sharp Money's Play
The initial massive line movement caught the attention of sophisticated bettors. Sharp money struck immediately, backing Denver at +5.5. But that hasn't stemmed the flood of Patriots action.
"There's obviously a big odds shift, week over week. If Nix was playing, we would've probably had the Broncos -1.5 or -2.5," Feazel said. "We flipped to the other side, and it's a little more dramatic move than we thought it would be."
The steady flow remains decidedly Patriots. Feazel expects late sharp action on Denver to pull the line down toward 4 or 3.5.
"People aren't running to bet the Broncos, while the Pats have been getting action week in and week out. I anticipate some sharper action late on the Broncos, and this line probably closing closer to 4 or maybe even 3.5. We'll want a Patriots win and a Broncos cover," Feazel said.
The Super Bowl Dream Scenario
Caesars has zero futures liability on any remaining team, giving oddsmakers freedom to root for the most compelling matchup. Feazel made clear what would generate maximum betting action.
"I don't think we want the Broncos in there. Rams vs. Patriots, Matthew Stafford vs. Drake Maye would be tremendous. The more storylines you can add, the more action you're gonna see. We'd much rather see the Patriots vs. either the Rams or the Seahawks."
Seven-Figure Bets on the Line
The championship games carry enormous potential payouts for early bettors.
A BetMGM customer wagered $50,000 on Seattle +2800 to win the NFC back in August. A Seahawks victory Sunday delivers a massive $1.4 million profit (total payout $1.45 million).
On the AFC side, the stakes are even higher. A BetMGM customer placed $100,000 on the Broncos at +350 to win the conference in December. A Denver upset win pays $350,000 profit (total payout $450,000). Two additional customers bet $75,000 and $50,000 at the same odds, which would generate $262,500 and $175,000 profits, respectively.