Sean Payton will spend the offseason second-guessing one of the most pivotal decisions of his Denver tenure. With the Broncos leading 7-0 and facing fourth-and-1 at the New England 14-yard line early in the second quarter—in clear skies and ideal kicking conditions—Payton chose to go for it instead of taking the chip-shot field goal. The play failed. The decision haunted Denver the rest of the day.

The Broncos lost 10-7 to the Patriots in Sunday's AFC championship game, a defeat that traces directly back to those three left points and the deteriorating weather that arrived at halftime.

"There's always regrets," Payton said. "I felt like here were are, fourth-and-1, close enough — it's also a call you make based on the team you're playing and what you're watching on the other side of the ball. Yeah, there will always be second thoughts."

The calculation seemed sound on paper: a backup quarterback starting his first playoff game against a formidable opponent. Multiple analysts—including Bill Cowher and Tony Romo—emphasized before kickoff that Denver needed to capture every available point with Jarrett Stidham stepping in for injured starter Bo Nix. Payton ignored that consensus.

Stidham's pass to RJ Harvey fell incomplete. The drive stalled. The decision cascaded into Denver's collapse.

The Backup's Brutal Debut

Stidham started strong, connecting on a 52-yard completion to Marvin Mims Jr. that set up a short touchdown pass to Courtland Sutton. Then the fourth-down failure derailed the momentum.

Late in the second quarter, under pressure from Christian Elliss, Stidham attempted to throw the ball away but rifled a backward pass—initially ruled incomplete but corrected by officials after consultation. Elijah Ponder recovered, and Drake Maye walked into the end zone two plays later, giving New England a 7-7 tie.

"Obviously, I can't put our team in a bad position like that," Stidham said. "That was completely on me."

Referee Alex Kemp explained the reversal: the down judge signaled that Stidham had thrown a lateral, not a forward pass. The quarterback claimed he thought he'd thrown it forward.

"No, I thought I'd thrown it forward," he said.

Stidham conceded he should have simply taken the sack. He finished with 133 yards, one touchdown pass, and a fourth-quarter interception that sealed the Patriots' victory.

The Snow Turns the Tide

With snow and wind mounting in the third quarter, the Patriots launched a 16-play drive that ended with Andy Borregales' go-ahead 23-yard field goal. That score stood as the final tally in the increasingly treacherous conditions.

Kicker Wil Lutz missed two field goals that day—one blocked—leaving Denver's special teams battered. Late in the game, trailing 10-7, Lutz attempted a 45-yard kick into heavy wind on a snow-covered field. Leonard Taylor III deflected it.

"Unfortunately, you couldn't see the lines on the field and honestly I think we might have been a yard short on the snap," Lutz said. "But you can't see the lines on the field and we had to kind of estimate."

A Brutal Parallel

The margin of defeat carried historical weight. Only three teams have won a Super Bowl berth while scoring 10 points or fewer. Denver stands on the wrong side of two of those games. In 1991, the Broncos lost 10-7 to Buffalo in an AFC championship with backup Gary Kubiak replacing injured John Elway.

History, it seems, repeats itself.

"There will be a number of things when we watch the tape I will look at and critique and pay close attention to," Payton said. "It was a hard-fought game, and we didn't do enough to win."

Denver was one yard, one call, one decision away from the Super Bowl. Payton will be reviewing film for a long time.