Upsets Everywhere: Underdogs Dominate NFL, College Football
Plenty of upsets in last week's NFL games hint at potential for more surprises this weekend, with notable matchups including Indiana challenging Ohio State and the Texans looking to disrupt the Chiefs.
Upsets dominated last week's NFL slate. All four games played on Thanksgiving and Black Friday went to the underdog. Then Sunday brought another shock: the surging Rams fell to the surprising Panthers, while the Jets and Texans pulled off mini-upsets of their own.
This weekend offers fresh opportunities for more chaos. Here's where the favorites look vulnerable.
No. 2 Indiana vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Sportsbooks posted odds for this matchup back in October after Indiana's win at Oregon. Now the inevitable has arrived.
The winner secures the top seed in the College Football Playoff. But Ohio State could be vulnerable after finally ending its drought against Michigan for the first time since 2019. Even a loss doesn't eliminate the defending national champions—they'd still earn a bye in the playoff.
Indiana, meanwhile, carries a chip on its shoulder. The Hoosiers appear ultra-motivated to prove they belong among college football's elite.
The numbers favor Ohio State: undefeated, national champions, dominant all season. But there's a catch. Since beating Texas in Week 1—a game where they were outgained—the Buckeyes have faced a soft schedule.
Indiana's talent and tenacity will test Ohio State in Indianapolis on Saturday. Expect a tighter game than the oddsmakers suggest.
PICK: Indiana (+5.5) to lose by fewer than 5.5 points or win outright
Texans @ Chiefs
Kansas City has been favored by slightly more than a field goal for four consecutive weeks. In the previous three, the results were brutal: losses to Dallas and Denver, then a desperate overtime rally against Indianapolis that required erasing a double-digit fourth-quarter deficit just to win by three.
Expect another struggle.
The Over/Under sits at a slim 41.5 points. Few scores are expected in what should be a close, defensive battle. Houston's defense leads the league in both points allowed per game and yards allowed per game.
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs face a must-win situation at home—and that's exactly why the market fear creates value on Houston's side. To reach a fourth consecutive Super Bowl, Kansas City likely needs to win every remaining game. The surging Texans will keep this one close.
PICK: Texans (+3.5) to lose by fewer than 3.5 points or win outright
