The 2026 NFL schedule hit the books, and oddsmakers have wasted no time posting regular-season win totals for all 32 teams. Strength of schedule is shaping the betting landscape dramatically—some teams are being punished for brutal slates ahead, while others are catching breaks with favorable paths.

The Chicago Bears, Miami Dolphins and Green Bay Packers face the toughest roads in 2026, while the Cleveland Browns, Cincinnati Bengals and New Orleans Saints draw the easiest schedules.

The story isn't always optimistic for last year's winners. The Denver Broncos, New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks combined for 42 wins in 2025, but Vegas isn't buying an encore.

The Winners and Losers

Cincinnati Bengals emerge as the biggest movers. Despite winning just six games in 2025—largely due to Joe Burrow missing nine games—the Bengals have a 9.5-win total with heavy betting favoring the over at -140 odds. They added Dexter Lawrence II and Boye Mafe defensively and draw the third-easiest schedule.

Kansas City Chiefs are banking on redemption. After their worst season since 2012 with just six wins, the team went a brutal 1-9 in one-possession games. Patrick Mahomes' ACL injury cost them three games and playoff hopes, but Vegas expects a championship-caliber bounce-back at 10.5 wins.

Las Vegas Raiders, the league's worst team with three wins, finally have ammunition. After blowing $281.5 million on the first day of free agency alone and drafting QB Fernando Mendoza, the Raiders sit at 5.5 wins—a major upgrade from last year's catastrophe.

Seattle Seahawks, last year's Super Bowl champions with 14 wins, are taking a hit. Losing Boye Mafe, Kenneth Walker III, Coby Bryant and Riq Woolen dropped them to 10.5 wins, despite their historic championship run.

Denver Broncos won 14 games last season but recorded an NFL-record-tying 11 one-possession victories. That's unsustainable. Their 9.5-win total signals Vegas believes regression is coming, regardless of the Jaylen Waddle trade acquisition.

The Cautious Cases

Baltimore Ravens took a step back to eight wins in 2025, but Lamar Jackson missed four games while dealing with injuries. New head coach Jesse Minter and free-agent signing Trey Hendrickson have them pegged at 11.5 wins.

Chicago Bears won 11 games and the NFC North under Ben Johnson in his first year, but they're facing the league's toughest schedule. Key defensive departures and the unexpected retirement of center Drew Dalman knocked their total down to 9.5.

Los Angeles Chargers won 11 games in 2025 despite losing both All-Pro tackles, Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater, for most of the season. Both return healthy in 2026, and they added Mike McDaniel as offensive coordinator. Yet Vegas dropped their total to 9.5 anyway.

San Francisco 49ers won 12 games while dealing with decimating injuries—Brock Purdy missed eight games, Fred Warner and Nick Bosa suffered season-ending injuries. Vegas still dropped them to 10.5 wins.

Staying the Course

Buffalo Bills have gone over their 10.5-win total in each of the last six seasons. Offensive coordinator Joe Brady takes over as head coach after the team fired Sean McDermott, and they added DJ Moore and Bradley Chubb.

Philadelphia Eagles have also exceeded their 10.5-win total in each of the last four seasons. After starting 2025 strong at 8-2, they collapsed down the stretch but added Riq Woolen and Dontayvion Wicks while drafting offensive weapons.

The Rebuilds and Gambles

Miami Dolphins are tied with Arizona for the lowest total at 4.5 wins after becoming sellers. They traded away Jaylen Waddle and Minkah Fitzpatrick, released Tyreek Hill and Bradley Chubb, and are starting fresh with Jeff Hafley and Malik Willis.

Pittsburgh Steelers are in transition after Mike Tomlin's 20-year run ended. Mike McCarthy and Aaron Rodgers reunite from their Green Bay days at 8.5 wins—the first time in Pittsburgh's recent history that number doesn't look like a lock.

New York Jets are hoping for relief. Aaron Glenn's first year was a disaster with three wins, but they signed Geno Smith and added defensive pieces to bump expectations to 5.5 wins.

Tennessee Titans won just three games in Cam Ward's rookie year. Hiring Robert Saleh and Brian Daboll, signing John Franklin-Myers, and drafting WR Carnell Tate at No. 4 overall signals optimism at 6.5 wins.

Win totals as of May 18 via DraftKings Sportsbook.