Week 17 NFL Picks: Playoff Positioning Down to Final Two Weeks
With two weeks left in the 2025 NFL regular season, teams like the Steelers, Texans, and Packers are edging closer to playoff spots, while Week 17 matchups offer betting insights and potential upsets.
With two weeks remaining in the 2025 regular season, the playoff picture is nearly set. The Steelers need either a win or a Ravens loss to clinch the AFC North, while the Texans and Packers each have a magic number of one to secure playoff spots.
Seeding and division titles remain up for grabs despite the reduced uncertainty typical of this late stage. Here's a breakdown of every Week 17 matchup with best bets for each game.
Thursday, December 25
Cowboys @ Commanders
Play: Cowboys -7
Dallas has been eliminated but faces one of the league's worst defenses and third-string quarterback Josh Johnson. The edge goes to the eliminated Cowboys.
Lions @ Vikings
Play: Vikings +7.5
Minnesota defeated Detroit in early November and gets Max Brosmer under center against a Lions team ravaged by injuries on both sides of the ball. The Vikings have played well of late and should keep this close.
Broncos @ Chiefs
Play: Chiefs +13.5
Kansas City lost by 17 to Tennessee last week as an eliminated team on the road. This week, they're at home against a division rival in what could be Travis Kelce's final home game. Expect a spirited effort from the undermanned Chiefs.
Saturday, December 27
Texans @ Chargers
Play: First Quarter Under 7.5
Two of the league's best defenses meet in a playoff rematch. The Chargers' battered offensive line plays directly into the Texans' strength—a ferocious defensive line. Both offenses struggled last week, setting up a sluggish start.
Ravens @ Packers
Play: Packers -3
Jordan Love appears on track to return from a concussion, and Baltimore's season has been defined by injuries and heartbreaking losses. Green Bay gets the edge.
Sunday, December 28
Patriots @ Jets
Play: Jets +13.5
The Jets haven't played a competitive game in weeks, but facing a division rival playing for an AFC East title should spark motivation. Thirteen-and-a-half points is substantial on the road.
Steelers @ Browns
Play: Browns +3
Pittsburgh will be without star wide receiver DK Metcalf and could have nothing to play for if Green Bay beats Baltimore on Saturday. The Steelers may selectively rest players, allowing Cleveland to exploit the vulnerability as a division spoiler.
Buccaneers @ Dolphins
Play: Buccaneers -5.5
Tampa Bay hasn't played at full strength in the second half, but they need this game against a Dolphins team in evaluation mode.
Cardinals @ Bengals
Play: Over 52.5
Both teams scored 60+ points in two of their last three games. Expect fireworks Sunday.
Seahawks @ Panthers
Play: Panthers +7.5
Carolina can clinch the division with a win over Seattle and a Buccaneers loss. The Panthers have flown under the radar all season and deserve respect at home.
Jaguars @ Colts
Play: Over 48.5
The Colts allowed 65 points in Monday's loss to San Francisco. Jacksonville's last three games featured 55, 54, and 68 points scored. Only the Over makes sense here.
Saints @ Titans
Play: Titans +2.5
New Orleans has exceeded all expectations, but laying points on the road against anyone is risky—even the struggling Titans.
Giants @ Raiders
Play: Under 41.5
Las Vegas ranks last in the NFL, averaging just over 14 points per game. New York is 23rd. The Raiders are without tight end Brock Bowers, and Giants quarterback Jaxson Dart has regressed since Brian Daboll's firing.
Eagles @ Bills
Play: Jalen Hurts Over 31.5 Rushing Yards
Buffalo has one of the league's worst run defenses facing Philadelphia's strong rushing attack. Hurts ran for 40 yards last week and 39 the week before. Expect another Over.
Bears @ 49ers
Play: Bears +0.5 First Quarter
Chicago is one of the few teams that elects to take the ball first when winning the coin toss. Take the half-point with the team likely to start on offense.
Monday, December 29
Rams @ Falcons
Play: Kyle Pitts Anytime Touchdown
Pitts has emerged after years of underperformance. Over the last three weeks, he's averaged over 100 yards and 10 targets per game. Expect him to find the end zone as his production continues to surge.