The Kansas City Chiefs' 11-year playoff run ends this season, and suddenly the American Football Conference has become a wide-open scramble for the first time in nearly two decades.

For six years, Patrick Mahomes commanded the AFC like few quarterbacks ever have. Before him, Tom Brady ran the conference for 18 years. Now, with elite quarterbacks Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow likely watching from home, the playoff field features two unproven young teams at the top—the Denver Broncos and New England Patriots—alongside experienced playoff regulars sensing their moment: the Buffalo Bills, Houston Texans, and Pittsburgh Steelers.

NFL insiders weighed in on which teams will shape the AFC's final push and who will represent the conference in Super Bowl LX.

AFC East: The Patriots' Soft Schedule Meets Allen's Playoff Pedigree

The Patriots can clinch the division with a win over Buffalo this weekend. But experience looms as the deciding factor.

Greg Auman sees New England's elite defense—a top-five unit—potentially overcoming Drake Maye's inexperience against Josh Allen's 13 playoff games. But four other analysts disagree sharply.

Ralph Vacchiano refuses to trust the Patriots despite their dominance: "They have played one of the softest schedules I've ever seen. I know they can't do anything about that, of course, but it does mean they are untested—and that would scare me heading into the postseason."

The Bills are flawed, but Josh Allen has led them to the playoffs six straight seasons. They've won at least one game in five straight years. I know they'll have to go on the road this time, and that's different. They are 0-4 on the road in the playoffs in the Allen era (though three of those losses were in Kansas City). But in the playoffs, it's hard to beat experience. And the Patriots will go into the postseason with almost no big-game experience at all.

Ben Arthur agrees: Allen is the reigning MVP and has surrounded himself with playoff-tested players. "Buffalo has made the playoffs six consecutive years. And it must be licking its chops looking at the prospective playoff field for this year. There's a good chance of no Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson or Joe Burrow."

Henry McKenna emphasizes Allen's clutch gene, honed over eight seasons. The Bills remain the safer postseason bet.

Eric D. Williams credits Allen's ability to close out games—a skill Maye must still develop. "For me, that's Josh Allen, which puts the Bills in an advantageous position, even having to go on the road in the playoffs."

AFC North: Steelers Limp Forward as Ravens Underachieve

Pittsburgh's win over Baltimore last week gives them a narrow division edge, but it's hardly convincing.

Auman calls the Steelers "easily the wobbliest AFC division winner." They've been outscored by opponents this season and sit just 4-3 at home. Aaron Rodgers hasn't won a playoff game in five years.

Vacchiano thinks the Bengals are the best team in the division—now that Joe Burrow is back—but accepts their season is over. The Ravens' brutal schedule likely eliminates them despite being "the better team."

Lamar Jackson looks like a shell of himself, especially since coming back from injury, and that's a big part of it. But I think if he could shake out of his funk, the Ravens are better and deeper than a Steelers team with a weak defense, no running game, and a 42-year-old quarterback held together by duct tape.

Arthur worries about Pittsburgh's run defense—giving up over 200 rushing yards in back-to-back games. A revived Jackson could seize the division.

McKenna credits Rodgers for quietly playing well lately. The defense generates the second-most takeaways in the NFL (23), giving Pittsburgh a "puncher's chance" in the playoffs.

Williams sees Rodgers finally looking like Hall of Fame material, providing Pittsburgh "a puncher's chance to not only win the AFC North, but perhaps win a game once it reaches the postseason."

AFC South: Houston's Suffocating Defense Edges Jacksonville

Jacksonville leads the division by one game, but the Texans loom as threats.

Auman predicts a 12-5 tie between both teams, with Houston winning the tiebreaker via superior conference record. "It's hard to bet against that defense right now."

Vacchiano dismisses Philip Rivers' return to the Colts as a non-factor at age 44. Houston's No. 1 ranked defense carries them over Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars.

I don't think there is a better pass rush or secondary in the league. That can carry a team a long way—probably farther than QB Trevor Lawrence can carry the Jags.

Arthur favors Houston's defense and C.J. Stroud's proven poise. The Texans turn the ball over fewer than all but two teams (10 giveaways). Stroud has played four playoff games; Lawrence just two.

McKenna prefers Jacksonville's offensive firepower under Liam Coen, but admits the Texans "will still likely eke out that last wild-card playoff spot."

Williams expects Houston to finish atop the division for a third straight season, given their schedule strength and defensive dominance.

AFC West: Broncos' Defense and Clutch Gene Trump Chargers' Injury Chaos

The Broncos' 6-0 home record and elite defense make them the clear favorite, but daunting road tests await.

Auman takes Denver seriously despite their second-year quarterback. Their defense ranks fourth in points allowed and third in yards. "It wouldn't surprise me if the Broncos got the second seed and the Chargers the fifth and both advanced from wild-card weekend."

Vacchiano can't trust the Chargers because their offensive line can't protect Justin Herbert, who already has a broken hand. But Denver's constant close games (11 of 13 one-score contests, 9-2 record) raise red flags.

Every time I watch them, I come away thinking they are a fraud, and I wonder, "How the heck did they win that game?" Yet they keep winning. So maybe I'm underestimating them. I think Sean Payton is the best coach in the NFL.

Arthur gives Denver the edge. Bo Nix shows clutch instincts; Herbert gets pressured more than any quarterback in the league (224 pressures).

McKenna credits Denver's complete construction: defense, special teams, and a second-year QB functioning as a game manager—the perfect role for Nix.

Williams initially picked the Chargers but acknowledges Payton's dominance in close games and Denver's defensive strength.

AFC Championship: The Bills Emerge from Chaos

With the conference wide open and Mahomes sidelined, the insiders see different paths to the Super Bowl.

Auman selects the Texans as a late-surging surprise. Their defense is the best in the NFL. If C.J. Stroud rediscovers rookie-year form, Houston could make noise.

Vacchiano picks the Buffalo Bills—a wild-card team in a wide-open year. Allen's 30-year drought for Western New York feels different now.

With Patrick Mahomes out, which QB are you going to trust more in the playoffs than Josh Allen? The road won't be easy, but they're not going to be bothered by big games or bad weather. I think this really could be their year.

Arthur backs the Texans, citing their All-Pro defense and Stroud's recent offensive momentum.

McKenna predicts the Bills in the Super Bowl, facing the Los Angeles Rams. Allen "earned the 'Superman' nickname for a reason."

Williams sticks with the Bills, his preseason pick. "With all those elite QBs out of the mix, even if the Bills don't get homefield advantage, with Allen, they are more than capable of winning playoff games on the road."