Despite an erratic freshman year that fell short of sky-high expectations, Arch Manning remains a consensus first-round lock and could still go No. 1 overall if the Texas quarterback declares for the 2026 NFL Draft, according to interviews with five NFL scouts and executives.

The 21-year-old Manning was supposed to be the obvious choice atop the 2026 class when scouts assessed the quarterback landscape a year ago. That certainty has wavered after an unexpectedly inconsistent season as Texas's starter, but the talent that generated the hype never disappeared.

"He might still go No. 1 [overall]. All the tools are there, even if the performance was erratic. He might need a little time to grow into himself as a player. But he's got the size (6-foot-4, 219 pounds), the arm, the intangibles, and the kid had some great games. I think I'd still feel better about his future than anyone else in this year's class."

—College area scout

The Tools Remain Intact

All three scouts and two executives contacted said Manning would absolutely go in the first round if he declared next April. Three specifically stated he would unquestionably be the first quarterback selected.

The reason cuts straight to the point: talent. One NFC executive was blunt about it.

"Talent. He never lost that. It's what all the hype was about from the beginning, and it's still there. It's not alarming that he was inconsistent in his first year as a starter in the SEC. It's perfectly normal. The expectations were probably way too high, anyway. But his arm, his head, his feet, his overall ability. I can still see every bit of it."

A Season of Ups and Downs

The hype entering 2025 was astronomical—national championship and Heisman Trophy talk, with some projecting him as a one-and-done No. 1 overall pick. The Manning pedigree, as nephew of Peyton and Eli Manning and grandson of Archie, comes with outsized expectations.

Reality hit immediately. Manning threw for just 170 yards in a season-opening loss at Ohio State, then delivered an alarming 11-of-25, 114-yard performance against UTEP two weeks later.

But the trajectory reversed. As the season progressed, so did his play:

• 346 yards and three touchdowns at Mississippi State
• 327 yards and three touchdowns versus Vanderbilt
• 389 yards and four touchdowns at Arkansas
• 179 yards and a touchdown, plus 53 rushing yards and a score, in a season-ending upset of unbeaten Texas A&M

The Statistics Tell a Mixed Story

In 12 regular-season starts, Manning completed 61.4% of his passes for 2,942 yards with 24 touchdown passes and seven interceptions. He added 244 rushing yards and eight touchdowns, leading Texas to a No. 14 final regular-season ranking and a Citrus Bowl berth against Michigan on New Year's Eve.

Solid numbers overall, but well below preseason projections.

"There was obvious improvement as the season went along. It wasn't always easy to tell because his offensive line was shaky, and they had trouble running the ball. But you could tell he doesn't panic. His ball placement was off at times, but not a lot. And that improved, too."

—AFC scout

One scout reframed the narrative: "If you forget what you expected at the beginning of the season, you'll see a really good prospect. I'm sure some are disappointed. But you'll only feel that way if you're measuring him against what you thought he was supposed to be."

A Weak QB Class Helps His Case

Manning benefits from a thin 2026 quarterback pool. Only Indiana's Fernando Mendoza appears to be a consensus top-10 pick. Oregon's Dante Moore could crack the first round, though most scouts believe he'd benefit from another college year—possibly more so than Manning.

Likely Stays, But If He Leaves...

All indications suggest Manning will return to Texas for his junior season. He has until January 14 to declare, but sources close to the family said no one should be surprised if he follows his uncles' path and stays until eligibility expires.

That would place him in the 2028 class, though all five NFL sources interviewed believe 2027 is more likely.

Whenever Manning declares, scouts agree on one thing: The Manning name carries power.

"He'll be the first quarterback taken and a possible first overall pick whenever he decides to come out. Don't underestimate the power of the Manning name. Some franchise would be thrilled to dive into that gene pool."

—NFL executive

An assistant general manager laid out the optimal scenario: a team that can afford to let Manning develop, sitting behind a veteran like Patrick Mahomes did in Kansas City or Jordan Love in Green Bay. The Los Angeles Rams, with two first-round picks and aging starter Matthew Stafford, would be a natural fit—so natural that the executive joked: "If [Manning] comes out, you just know [Rams coach Sean] McVay would try to move up to get him, so he could sit him behind Stafford for a year. And if that happens, we should all just quit."

Most teams needing immediate quarterback help—the Las Vegas Raiders (2nd overall), New York Jets (7th), Arizona Cardinals (8th), Cleveland Browns (4th), and New Orleans Saints (5th)—probably need someone ready now, not in a year or two.

Still, Manning's pedigree and raw tools suggest he'll be the next to join the Manning dynasty at the NFL's highest level.