Buccaneers Favored to Beat Struggling Falcons in NFC South Showdown
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are favored to win against the Atlanta Falcons, boasting a strong defense and efficient offense led by Baker Mayfield.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-6) enter Thursday night's divisional matchup against the Atlanta Falcons (4-9) as clear favorites, with oddsmakers installing them at -4.5 points. The game carries a total of 44.5 points.
Tampa Bay controls the NFC South and has found offensive rhythm behind Baker Mayfield, while Atlanta continues to falter both at home and on the road. The Falcons sit 2-5 away from home and lack the firepower to challenge a Buccaneers team that has built momentum down the stretch.
The Edge: Tampa Bay's Defense
The Buccaneers' defensive unit presents a formidable obstacle for an Atlanta offense depleted by injuries. Tykee Smith, Lavonte David, and SirVocea Dennis anchor a front that has generated 43 sacks this season, routinely pressuring opposing quarterbacks.
Atlanta's ground-heavy attack—built around Bijan Robinson and tight end Kyle Pitts—will face stiff resistance. The Falcons have been outgained in recent contests and lack consistency on offense, particularly after losing receiver Drake London to injury.
Mayfield has orchestrated an efficient passing attack this season, throwing 20 touchdowns against six interceptions while completing 61.6% of his passes. Emeka Egbuka has emerged as a reliable target with 54 catches for 806 yards and six scores.
The Pick
- Against the Spread: Buccaneers (-4.5)
- Over/Under: Over (44.5)
- Prediction: Buccaneers 28, Falcons 18
Betting Context
The Buccaneers enter as moneyline favorites with a 70.4% implied probability of victory. Tampa Bay is 5-2 when favored on the moneyline this season. However, the team carries a pedestrian 5-8 record against the spread overall.
Atlanta has shown some resilience as a heavy underdog, going 3-1 ATS when underdogs by 4.5 points or more, though the Falcons have won just 37.5% of games when cast as underdogs this season.
Game Details
Date: Thursday, December 11, 2025
Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Location: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida
Broadcast: Amazon Prime Video
Head-to-Head History
Over their last five meetings, Atlanta holds a 3-1 edge against Tampa Bay. However, the Buccaneers have outpaced the Falcons by 7 points across those five contests, suggesting the overall competitive balance tilts toward Tampa Bay despite Atlanta's recent head-to-head success.
