The Kansas City Chiefs are in serious trouble this NFL season, and that reality should carry major weight in Week 15 betting.

Despite playing at home against the Los Angeles Chargers, the Chiefs are primed to struggle. Here's my wager for NFL Week 15.

Chargers @ Chiefs

The Chiefs' collapse is worse than the record suggests. They've lost four of their last five games and failed to cover their only win in that stretch. More damning: their narrow losses mask a deeper problem—they didn't actually come close in most of them.

Kansas City dropped one-score games to the Chargers, Eagles, Cowboys, and Bills, but each time the Chiefs needed late scores just to make those games competitive. Every opponent finished by taking a knee. These weren't tight contests. They were blowouts.

The offensive breakdown is systemic. Quarterback play, playcalling, dropped passes, missed blocks—it's all fractured. The Chiefs cannot score against elite defenses. The Chargers rank 10th in DVOA with playmakers at every level.

Kansas City's offensive line remains injury-plagued. Last week marked the first time the Chiefs' offensive superstars openly showed visible frustration about their lack of success.

Defensively, Kansas City is broken. The unit can't rush the passer and collapses on third-and-long situations. Those weaknesses compound each other, and the Chargers—missing both offensive tackles with Justin Herbert getting hammered weekly—still keep fighting. The Chiefs haven't capitalized on a crippled pass rush all season. Why would Sunday be different?

PICK: Chargers (+4.5) to lose by fewer than 4.5 points or win outright

Bills @ Patriots

The Patriots are a lock to score points this weekend.

New England is fresh off a bye with an offense firing on all cylinders—ranked 10th in DVOA. Quarterback Drake Maye has ascended to serious MVP consideration with the second-shortest odds in the league.

Maye throws a devastating deep ball and performs remarkably well under pressure—he's first in the NFL in quarterback rating when pressured, a rarity for a young signal-caller. The Patriots pair that with an improving running game and creative play-calling. A bye week gives offensive coordinators time to scheme up new wrinkles.

The Bills' defense is a liability. Ranked 22nd in DVOA, it hemorrhages points against quality offenses. Buffalo allowed 34 points to Cincinnati last week, 32 to Tampa Bay weeks earlier, and 23 to Davis Mills and the Texans.

Expect New England to attack Buffalo's porous run defense relentlessly and stick with what works. Too many teams abandon the run game prematurely.

PICK: Patriots team total Over 25.5 points

Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams and started at right tackle for the University of Oregon.