Fernando Mendoza Locks Down No. 1 Overall Pick; No. 3 Spot Remains Wide Open
Indiana's Fernando Mendoza is heavily favored to be the top pick in the NFL Draft, while the race for the third selection remains competitive, with David Bailey leading the pack.
Indiana's Fernando Mendoza is the overwhelming favorite to be selected first in April's NFL Draft, with betting odds as short as -20000 at some sportsbooksβmeaning bettors must risk $10,000 just to win $100.
The path gets murkier after the top two picks. While Arvell Reese commands the second-overall spot with -250 odds, the third selection remains genuinely competitive, with minimal separation between the top candidates.
The No. 3 Sweepstakes
As of March 25, DraftKings Sportsbook offered these odds:
- David Bailey (Texas Tech): +255 β bet $10 to win $35 total
- Francis Mauigoa (Miami): +330 β bet $10 to win $43 total
- Arvell Reese (Ohio State): +370 β bet $10 to win $47 total
- Jeremiyah Love (Notre Dame): +450 β bet $10 to win $55 total
- Sonny Styles (Ohio State): +900 β bet $10 to win $100 total
- Spencer Fano (Utah): +1300 β bet $10 to win $140 total
- Monroe Freeling (Georgia): +1400 β bet $10 to win $150 total
- Rueben Bain Jr. (Miami): +1600 β bet $10 to win $170 total
- Ty Simpson (Alabama): +2200 β bet $10 to win $230 total
- Caleb Downs (Ohio State): +3500 β bet $10 to win $360 total
- Carnell Tate (Ohio State): +8000 β bet $10 to win $810 total
Who's in the Mix?
Bailey leads the board. The 6-foot-3 Texas Tech linebacker transferred from Stanford before the 2025 season, immediately making an impact with 32 solo tackles, 20 assists, and three defended passes. FOX Sports Lead College Football Analyst Joel Klatt has him going third in his mock draft.
"There's a lot of hype around Bailey, and rightly so. This guy is a game-wrecker. Bailey led all power-conference players in sacks and tackles for loss this past season. The Cardinals need help wherever they can get it, and Bailey will do that."
Mauigoa carries elite offensive line credentials. Miami's three-year starter earned All-ACC First Team honors and 2025 consensus first-team All-American status. However, Klatt projects him going 11th overall, not third.
"I'm not sure if he projects as a left tackle for the long haul, but he'll flourish right away at right tackle."
Reese presents another intriguing option. The 6-foot-4 Ohio State standout recorded 52 solo tackles and 60 assists over 2024-2025, including seven tackles in the Buckeyes' semifinal loss to Miami. FOX Sports Betting Analyst Geoff Schwartz sees immediate NFL impact.
"Reese is a physical freak who projects to rush the passer in the NFL. His on-the-field profile is Micah Parsons. He will make plays from a variety of alignments and the Cardinals can use him as it best fits their defense."
