Fernando Mendoza Stacks Up Against Recent Elite QB Prospects—And Ranks 7th
Indiana Hoosiers quarterback Fernando Mendoza is ranked as the seventh-best pre-draft quarterback prospect since 2021, reflecting his poise, physical tools, and potential to become a franchise cornerstone.
With the NFL Draft weeks away, Indiana Hoosiers quarterback Fernando Mendoza has emerged as the consensus top quarterback of the Class of 2026. But where does he actually rank among the elite quarterback prospects of recent years?
The answer: 7th among the best pre-draft quarterback prospects since 2021.
Mendoza lands at No. 4 overall on my 2026 Big Board, a ranking that reflects his polish, physical tools, and proven poise. Yet when stacked against quarterbacks who entered recent drafts with top-prospect grades, he falls behind several predecessors—including some who underperformed expectations and others who have thrived in the NFL.
The Scouting Reality
Quarterbacks have been selected No. 1 overall in four of the past five drafts. Caleb Williams (2024), Bryce Young (2023), and Trevor Lawrence (2021) were all ranked as top prospects of their respective classes on my Big Board. C.J. Stroud checked in at No. 2 in my 2023 rankings, while Drake Maye landed at No. 6 in 2024, despite an elite class with only four other top-10 picks.
But this year's class isn't as deep at the top.
The Misses and the Lessons
I've been wrong before. Bo Nix and Jaxson Dart were the only first-round quarterbacks since 2021 who I ranked outside the top 32 prospects in their respective draft classes. Both have dramatically outplayed my expectations, their mobility and grit translating far better to the NFL than I predicted.
I also overrated Anthony Richardson (ranked 9th in 2023) and Will Levis (13th in 2023). Meanwhile, I underestimated how quickly early-career starters could falter—Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, and Mac Jones all landed first-round grades in 2021, yet none became franchise cornerstones.
The lesson: Playing quarterback at the NFL level demands poise and leadership as much as arm talent. Rarely are QBs equipped to handle the pressure after only one or two years as college starters. That's why some years produce no quarterbacks in my top 10. There wasn't one in my 2022 or 2025 final rankings.
Why Mendoza Deserves the Hype
Despite what headlines suggest, Mendoza's rise was steady, not surprising. I listed him as a first-round candidate before the season began. He spent all year silencing critics, personifying Indiana's magical run to a national championship and the Heisman Trophy.
Mendoza is far and away the top quarterback of this class and warrants ranking among the top overall prospects in this draft. He offers an exciting blend of polish and untapped potential. His skill set—prototypical frame, quick release, precision passing on the move—projects well for the offense Klint Kubiak figures to employ with the Las Vegas Raiders.
Beyond the physical tools, Mendoza enters the NFL with above-average pre-snap awareness and proven poise. He projects as a Day 1 starter with the physical tools and intangibles to develop into a true franchise-changer.
My Pre-Draft Rankings: Top QB Prospects Since 2021
- Caleb Williams, USC (2024) — No. 1 overall pick
- Trevor Lawrence, Clemson (2021) — No. 1 overall pick
- Bryce Young, Alabama (2023) — No. 1 overall pick
- C.J. Stroud, Ohio State (2023) — No. 2 overall pick
- Drake Maye, North Carolina (2024) — No. 3 overall pick
- Jayden Daniels, LSU (2024) — No. 2 overall pick
- Fernando Mendoza, Indiana (2026)
- Justin Fields, Ohio State (2021) — No. 11 overall pick
- Zach Wilson, BYU (2021) — No. 2 overall pick
- Anthony Richardson Sr., Florida (2023) — No. 4 overall pick
- Shedeur Sanders, Colorado (2025) — No. 144 overall pick
- Cam Ward, Miami (2025) — No. 1 overall pick
- Trey Lance, North Dakota State (2021) — No. 3 overall pick
- J.J. McCarthy, Michigan (2024) — No. 10 overall pick
- Malik Willis, Liberty (2022) — No. 86 overall pick
- Mac Jones, Alabama (2021) — No. 15 overall pick
- Michael Penix Jr., Washington (2024) — No. 8 overall pick
- Will Levis, Kentucky (2023) — No. 33 overall pick
- Ty Simpson, Alabama (2026)
- Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh (2022) — No. 20 overall pick
- Bo Nix, Oregon (2024) — No. 12 overall pick
- Jaxson Dart, Ole Miss (2025) — No. 25 overall pick
Current Assessments (As of Today)
The post-draft reality reshuffles the deck considerably:
- Drake Maye, Patriots
- Caleb Williams, Bears
- Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars
- Bo Nix, Broncos
- Jayden Daniels, Commanders
- C.J. Stroud, Texans
- Bryce Young, Panthers
- Fernando Mendoza
- Cam Ward, Titans
- Malik Willis, Dolphins
- Jaxson Dart, Giants
- Michael Penix Jr., Falcons
- J.J. McCarthy, Vikings
- Mac Jones, 49ers
- Shedeur Sanders, Browns
- Ty Simpson
- Justin Fields, Chiefs
- Anthony Richardson Sr., Colts
- Will Levis, Titans
- Kenny Pickett, Panthers
- Zach Wilson, Free Agent
- Trey Lance, Cardinals
The rankings speak to the unpredictability of quarterback evaluation. But they also confirm one truth: Mendoza enters the NFL with legitimate credentials to become a franchise cornerstone. Where he lands on future reassessments depends entirely on what happens next.
