Josh Allen's first NFL start told the whole story of his early struggles.

Dropping back against the Los Angeles Chargers on September 16, 2018, the Buffalo Bills rookie felt pressure immediately. He did what he'd done constantly in college at Wyoming—evaded the rush, rolled right, looked downfield. But instead of the pinpoint pass downfield that would become his signature, Allen threw the ball directly at a Chargers defensive back. It should have been intercepted.

It was one of many uncatchable balls that day. A former Bills staffer who watched Allen during this period didn't mince words about what he saw.

"He was just winging it," the staffer told me.

Allen's physical tools were undeniable—6-foot-5, 237 pounds with a cannon arm. But his long-armed throwing motion was out of control. Touch throws sailed over receivers' heads. Short checkdowns became incompletions.

"This guy couldn't complete a pass to save his life," the staffer said. "There would be checkdowns or just underneath or touch throws that he would sail over their head. He just could not control his arm initially."

That's why Nathan Peterman, not the seventh overall pick, started the season for Buffalo.

Yet the same staffer who witnessed Allen's early incompetence now says something remarkable: If he could start an NFL franchise today with any quarterback, it would be Josh Allen.

The Skepticism Was Real

Not everyone saw Allen's potential. Bills tackle Dion Dawkins, who came into the league as a rookie with Allen, offers a starkly different account.

"That never happened. From the time he hit the field, from day one, he was great," Dawkins said.

But the doubters weren't wrong to be concerned. Allen had elite measurables—a hose for an arm, tremendous size and athleticism. What he lacked was production. In his final college season at Wyoming, he threw for 1,812 yards with 16 touchdowns and six interceptions. His two-year completion percentage as a starter was just 56.1%.

Before the 2018 draft, NFL Network analyst Mike Mayock delivered what seemed like high praise: "Biggest arm quarterback I've seen since JaMarcus Russell."

The comparison stopped being flattering when Mayock finished that sentence.

Allen became the punchline for the "Pardon My Take" podcast, which created an entire website—DraftJoshAllen.com—making the case that teams should draft him "because he's tall." It was biting satire about projection over production.

"He didn't jump off the tape when you watch him," one NFL scout said. "Josh had size. He had an arm. He had some of those tools that you're thinking, 'OK, that could translate.' But the expectation is that he absolutely dominates at that level. It shouldn't even be a question."

The Case for Allen

Brandon Beane saw something different.

When the Bills general manager took the job in May 2017, Allen wasn't his top-ranked quarterback for the 2018 draft. That changed through a methodical evaluation process: a 35-minute meeting at the Senior Bowl where Beane realized "he's not as raw as maybe we thought," the NFL Combine, private workouts, and a dinner.

"The one thing about Josh was that he just kept passing every test," Beane said. "We felt very confident about learning who he was through not only what he said, but through teammates, through coaches, just kind of putting the Josh Allen puzzle piece together."

Beane had one significant advantage over other evaluators: The Bills created their own adjusted completion percentage. They logged all of Allen's Wyoming snaps, crediting him with completions when receivers dropped passes and charging him with interceptions when defenders dropped balls. The result was eye-opening.

"I'm not saying you're wrong," Beane said about Allen's accuracy concerns. "I think he was a better player than people gave him credit for coming out. But one of the things that I think is a fallacy out there was the whole accuracy thing."

On April 26, 2018, Beane made his move. The Bills had initially picked 12th overall. They traded up to the seventh pick, surrendering the 12th, their second-round pick at 53, their second-rounder at 56, and a late seventh-rounder at 255 to Tampa Bay for the chance to select Allen.

"Once I heard it announced, 'The Bills are on the clock,' it was like, 'Hallelujah, we did it.' And we hadn't even called Josh yet," Beane said. "At that point, you're kind of like, 'Holy cow, this is actually happening.'"

It was the make-or-break decision of Beane's career.

Why Other Teams Passed

Even the Cleveland Browns at No. 1 overall seriously considered Allen. Head coach Hue Jackson had concerns.

"Is he gonna be able to put all of this together? It's all of the other things that came with trying to be the quarterback at Cleveland. Maybe this guy is too nice? I just wasn't sure if, when it got rough, if he was in Cleveland, whether he could handle the pressure of it all. 'Not only do I get drafted first, I've got to play like a franchise guy from day one, or else I fail.' A lot of people can't handle that pressure."

The Browns chose Heisman Trophy winner Baker Mayfield instead. The Giants took Saquon Barkley at two. Denver selected Bradley Chubb at five. Indianapolis wouldn't budge at six.

That left Tampa Bay with Allen at seven—and Beane's relentless pursuit finally paid off.

The Brutal Early Years

Allen's first three NFL seasons were difficult. He couldn't complete 60% of his passes until his third game. His first win coincided with his first game surpassing 60% completion. In 2019, he threw 20 touchdowns against nine interceptions and made the playoffs. But it wasn't until his third season—2020—that Allen truly broke out with 37 passing touchdowns, just 10 interceptions, and a Pro Bowl selection.

Former New England Patriots safety Devin McCourty remembers the progression clearly.

"In 2018, it was, 'We can't wait to play against this guy,'" McCourty said. "You got excited to play him because you knew he was going to take chances. He'd make mistakes."

By 2020, something had fundamentally changed. Ahead of a Week 16 matchup between Buffalo and New England, Patriots coach Bill Belichick held a team meeting.

"Bill comes in and he's like, 'Everyone's talking about this streak and how many passing yards. This game, for us, comes down to stopping the run,'" McCourty recalled. "And you can see every DB's face in that meeting room looking at each other, like, 'Are we all watching the same film? The run!?'"

Allen threw for 320 yards and four touchdowns in a 39-9 victory. He broke Jim Kelly's franchise passing touchdown record and surpassed Drew Bledsoe's franchise record for 300-yard games.

"That was when I was like, 'Alright, this is the guy. This is his division each year,'" McCourty said. "It was no more Brady and the Patriots. Our goal had to be, every year, to be as good as that team and that player."

When asked how Belichick missed Allen's rise, McCourty had one word: "Denial."

The Mechanics Revolution

Allen's transformation wasn't magic. It was methodical work on his throwing mechanics—something most scouts believed was nearly impossible to change.

His throwing coach Chris Hess explained the challenge: Allen grew up with a farmer's mentality about development.

"Josh is a farm kid from the Central Valley in California. Farmers develop. They grow seeds. They understand that not everything comes right away. There's this work ethic and investment, so you can be able to harvest. Josh kind of grew up with that mentality, whether he recognizes it or not."

The mechanical work took years. Hess and Allen built a new motor pattern in the weight room through exercises and drills. They worked with physical therapists on muscle, bone and tendon mobility. The process continues today, though now only with the slightest adjustments.

"It'll take some guys three months to do some movement, and he'll get it in three throws of doing it. It's just like, 'I hope you know that's not normal.' For him, it's normal," Hess said.

By 2024, Allen reflected on the transformation:

"It's night and day, in terms of the type of thrower I am. Where I held the ball, where I released the ball. It looks like a different guy. Sometimes when I click on YouTube, I'll see a video and I'm like, 'Who is that throwing the ball?'"

Decision-Making and Situational Awareness

Mechanics were only part of the equation. Allen also had to learn to read defenses, understand game plans, and make smarter decisions under pressure.

The turning point came in Week 4 of the 2019 season against the Patriots. Allen threw three interceptions in the first half. When he reached the locker room, offensive coordinator Brian Daboll "absolutely laid into" the young quarterback.

"I was sitting there just taking it because I felt like I was playing like crap. And I was playing like crap. And I was just like, 'Maybe it is me. Maybe I do need to change,'" Allen later said.

The lesson stuck. Allen became more patient, more willing to adapt to how opposing defenses played him.

"He learned more about the game and understanding who our opponent is. How do we win this game? And that can change," Beane said. "He's become more patient and willing. 'If you want to play that way, I'll play it with you.' That has been one of the huge things that he's improved over the years with his decision-making."

Allen also had to learn when to take hits and when to protect himself. His mobility was an asset, but it made him a target for opposing defenses. Learning situational awareness—when a hit makes sense and when sliding or getting out of bounds was the smarter play—became crucial.

Where Allen Stands Now

Bucky Brooks, former NFL scout and current FOX Sports analyst, made a bold claim: "I think he's the most improved quarterback prospect that we've ever seen."

Allen went from losing a competition to Nathan Peterman to competing with Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, and Lamar Jackson for quarterback supremacy.

At this moment, there might not be a better quarterback on the planet—including those three elites.

Allen's success also inspired a wave of similar picks that revealed just how special his journey is. The Indianapolis Colts drafted Anthony Richardson and the San Francisco 49ers drafted Trey Lance, both projecting to become "the next Josh Allen." Both failed. Their disappointments have only amplified Allen's achievement.

Even Beane won't commit to the "most improved" label, but he's unequivocal about one thing: Allen is a player who arrived raw, was willing to be coached, had the mental fortitude to change what was ingrained since childhood, and emerged as an elite NFL quarterback.

The Current Moment

This season has been tough for Allen. He's making bad decisions and throwing interceptions. But he's also facing situations where the Bills' lack of receiving weapons forces him into difficult choices—throwing to covered receivers or running into contact to extend plays.

The Bills added veteran receivers Elijah Moore, Mecole Hardman, Gabe Davis and Brandin Cooks to try to fix that problem.

Despite the struggles, Buffalo is headed to the playoffs. That's the Allen effect now. And with Mahomes potentially out of the postseason picture, this might be the best opportunity for Allen to finally win a Super Bowl.

A championship would cement what his journey already proves: Allen isn't just improved. He's transcendent.

Full Circle in Wyoming

In November, Allen returned to Laramie, Wyoming, for the first time since his Pro Day. His college jersey was being retired. Standing against photos of himself in a Wyoming uniform, the transformation was staggering—physically, professionally, and personally. He's Hollywood star Hailee Steinfeld's husband now. He's an MVP-caliber quarterback.

The most meaningful moment came when Allen and former head coach Craig Bohl spoke to the current Wyoming team.

"This is going to sound a little weird, but I love feeling like I feel today after a loss. It gets me going. It gives me the chills thinking about it, because I f---ing love this game. You've got to be a little sick to love this game, because it'll take a whole lot from you. But it'll give you a whole lot, too."

That sick feeling—the ability to turn losses into fuel, incompletions into lessons, doubts into motivation—might be the real story of Allen's rise. Raw talent can be drafted. The willingness to be completely remade? That's rarer than any arm strength measurement.

And that's why a kid from Wyoming who no Division I program wanted out of high school is now one of the best quarterback prospects ever turned elite NFL quarterback.