Winning championships in March isn't possible, but smart spending can shape a season's trajectory—and poor moves can sink one just as quickly.

Which teams made shrewd acquisitions and which ones whiffed won't become clear until September kickoff. Still, the first week of free agency produced enough movement to shift my power rankings significantly. One team climbed to the top after their offseason moves. Another surged after adding veteran quarterback help.

Here's how the 32 teams stack up following the opening week of free agency.

1. +30000 Super Bowl Odds

They brought in Gardner Minshew to compete at quarterback with Jacoby Brissett, added running back Tyler Allgeier for backfield depth, and signed Kendrick Bourne as a third receiver. This is clearly a 2027 NFL Draft rebuild—don't expect much in 2026.

2. +15000 Super Bowl Odds

They gutted their offensive line as expected, but rebuilding with guard Zion Johnson, offensive tackle Tytus Howard, and center Elgton Jenkins is questionable at best. Their young quarterbacks could have used another reliable receiver, too.

3. +20000 Super Bowl Odds

A short-term gamble on Malik Willis was necessary given the rest of their offseason became a fire sale. They have enough pieces to remain competitive, but this marks the beginning of a rebuild that could stretch several years.

4. +20000 Super Bowl Odds

Geno Smith's return at quarterback is a bad bet, but they had limited options. The defense got better with solid veterans like linebacker Demario Davis, edge rusher Joseph Ossai, and safety Minkah Fitzpatrick—crucial upgrades considering their offense will remain anemic.

5. +15000 Super Bowl Odds

They overpaid for center Tyler Linderbaum, though he may justify the expense for soon-to-be rookie QB Fernando Mendoza. The defense got upgraded too, and they added underrated receiver Jalen Nailor. Getting Maxx Crosby back provides some consolation for a bungled trade.

6. +8000 Super Bowl Odds

Constrained financially, they made moderate moves with guard David Edwards and running back Travis Etienne, who could emerge as a significant upgrade over the declining Alvin Kamara.

7. +10000 Super Bowl Odds

The drunken sailors of this free agent market. Their obsession with ex-Giants and Jets—receiver Wan'Dale Robinson, cornerback Cor'Dale Flott, tight end Daniel Bellinger, defensive lineman John Franklin-Myers—was peculiar. They're all solid players who'll help, but the prices are hard to justify.

8. +6500 Super Bowl Odds

They went all-in on Daniel Jones and receiver Alec Pierce, but it likely cost them receiver Michael Pittman, right tackle Braden Smith, and several defensive players. The entire offseason hinges on a risky bet: that Jones is ready and still elite.

9. +3000 Super Bowl Odds

Jerry Jones promised to spend in free agency this time. Did you believe him? He did retain receiver George Pickens and traded for edge rusher Rashan Gary. But their defense looks roughly the same—still terrible.

10. +4500 Super Bowl Odds

Losing receiver Mike Evans—one of the best and most consistent in NFL history—will sting for years. They made a decent pickup in linebacker Alex Anzalone, but losing Evans, running back Rachaad White, and cornerback Jamel Dean is brutal.

11. +8000 Super Bowl Odds

They massively overpaid for edge rusher Jaelen Phillips, though he and linebacker Devin Lloyd will still bolster the defense. Losing center Cade Mays and running back Rico Dowdle is bad news for a still-developing quarterback.

12. +7000 Super Bowl Odds

They upgraded slightly at linebacker, acquiring Tremaine Edmunds over Bobby Okereke, and added a bigger slot weapon with tight end Isaiah Likely. Mostly, they're banking on John Harbaugh maximizing existing talent.

13. +4500 Super Bowl Odds

They made nice upgrades with running back Rico Dowdle, receiver Michael Pittman, and cornerback Jamel Dean. Everything hinges on Aaron Rodgers. If he returns, move them up several spots. If not, they're quarterbackless and will collapse.

14. +6500 Super Bowl Odds

All that cap space and they prioritized quantity over quality. They added edge rushers Odafe Oweh and K'Lavon Chaisson, cornerback Amik Robertson, linebacker Leo Chenal, tight end Chig Okonkwo, and running back Rachaad White. But are any truly difference-makers?

15. +11000 Super Bowl Odds

Laugh at Tua Tagovailoa if you want, but he's a quarterback upgrade at minimum salary for a team with strong offensive weapons—if healthy. They could have done better than adding receivers Jahan Dotson and Olamide Zaccheaus.

16. +4500 Super Bowl Odds

This offseason boils down to one question: Does Kyler Murray at quarterback make them better? The answer should be yes—crucial for a team that went 9-8 and won their last five despite poor QB play.

17. +3000 Super Bowl Odds

Adding safety Bryan Cook would be huge for their defense, except they lost Trey Hendrickson in the same move. Signing edge rusher Boye Mafe is worth a shot, but he's a poor substitute.

18. +1700 Super Bowl Odds

Call it "unfinished business." Their defense looks worse after losing linebacker Alex Anzalone and cornerback Amik Robertson. They downgraded at running back, trading David Montgomery and signing Isaiah Pacheco. Their offensive line rebuild remains incomplete. They need draft home runs.

19. +1400 Super Bowl Odds

They got better defensively with tackle Javon Hargrove and cornerback Benjamin St-Juste. But they're counting heavily on internal options to replace receiver Romeo Doubs and offensive linemen they let walk.

20. +1900 Super Bowl Odds

Getting 28-year-old David Montgomery creates an intriguing backfield duo. But will he have room to run? Signing right tackle Braden Smith doesn't nearly fix their offensive line issues.

21. +1500 Super Bowl Odds

The Chargers' clear mission: protect QB Justin Herbert better. Armed with ample cap space, they signed center Tyler Biadasz and guard Cole Strange. Did they miss the memo on what they actually needed?

22. +1500 Super Bowl Odds

If healthy—a significant "if" at his age—receiver Mike Evans could be transformative for an offense that leaned too heavily on running back Christian McCaffrey last season. Defensive tackle Owa Odighizua, acquired from Dallas, could add the pass rush juice they lacked.

23. +1400 Super Bowl Odds

The departures of cornerbacks Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson will hurt, but wait until you see what their offense does with a reliable running back like Kenneth Walker. We've been waiting years to see that potential.

24. +2500 Super Bowl Odds

So much for the good feelings the new regime built last year. They let their best rusher (Travis Etienne) and Pro Bowl linebacker (Devin Lloyd) walk. How they replace them remains unclear—and won't be easy.

25. +2500 Super Bowl Odds

They lost a long list of players but found mostly solid replacements: safety Cobe Bryant, linebacker Devin Bush, and center Garrett Bradbury. The defense needed more, especially at edge rusher.

26. +1000 Super Bowl Odds

They salvaged the offseason after pivoting to Trey Hendrickson when they backed out of the Maxx Crosby deal. Adding safety Jaylinn Hawkins was important too. But losing center Tyler Linderbaum will hurt.

27. +1600 Super Bowl Odds

An unusually quiet offseason from Howie Roseman so far. They attempted a big splash at pass rusher and possibly shopped receiver A.J. Brown. Meanwhile, important defensive players—safety Reed Blankenship, linebacker Nakobe Dean, edge rusher Jaelen Phillips—walked.

28. +1900 Super Bowl Odds

They signed receiver Romeo Doubs, safety Kevin Byard, and defensive lineman Dre'Mont Jones—all upgrades over departing players. Guard Alijah Vera-Tucker could boost the line if he stays healthy. Their biggest challenge remains a significantly tougher 2026 schedule.

29. +1000 Super Bowl Odds

They finally gave Josh Allen a potential No. 1 receiver, trading for D.J. Moore—which could make their offense unstoppable. Signing edge rusher Bradley Chubb might be a steal too, if he stays healthy. All the pieces are in place for a Super Bowl run.

30. +1000 Super Bowl Odds

They're probably deep enough to absorb losses of cornerback Riq Woolen, safety Coby Bryant, and edge rusher Boye Mafe. But losing running back Kenneth Walker will sting. Replacing the Super Bowl MVP won't be easy.

31. +2000 Super Bowl Odds

They weren't expecting to do much in free agency, and they delivered exactly that. Losing John Franklin-Myers' seven sacks isn't ideal, but they should maintain solid pass rush without him.

32. +800 Super Bowl Odds

They're loaded and made sure of it by plugging their most glaring hole: the secondary. They acquired cornerbacks Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson—massive additions given their pass coverage cost them a Super Bowl appearance last season.