After a whirlwind first week that saw $5.83 billion committed to player contracts, the quarterback carousel has largely settled. Kyler Murray signed with the Vikings, Malik Willis joined the Dolphins, Daniel Jones inked an extension with the Colts, and Tua Tagovailoa landed with the Falcons. Aaron Rodgers has yet to sign but is expected to return to the Steelers before training camp.

Elsewhere, receiver Alec Pierce secured a massive deal to stay with the Colts, and former Eagles edge Jaelan Phillips cashed in with the Carolina Panthers. Yet beneath the surface of these headline moves lies a more complex picture of winners, losers, and cautionary tales.

The Ravens Won by Walking Away from Maxx Crosby

Baltimore made the nightmare decision every NFL general manager fears: canceling a massive trade that included huge draft capital.

By backing out of the Maxx Crosby deal, the Ravens stamped the five-time Pro Bowl edge rusher with a "damaged goods" label at precisely the wrong moment—when most elite pass-rushers had already landed elsewhere. They effectively deflated Crosby's value in every conceivable way.

The Raiders got screwed.

The Athletic's Dianna Russini reported that the Ravens had their team doctor and four or five independent doctors examine Crosby's medicals before pulling the plug. If Crosby's knee was truly fine, why haven't other teams shown real interest—especially at a lower cost than two first-round picks?

That said, Baltimore's shadiness shouldn't go unexamined. What they did was sketchy. Whether they suffered buyer's remorse remains unclear, but they operated within league rules. They violated unwritten ones—but not enough to permanently damage GM Eric DeCosta's reputation. As he said: "It hasn't stopped my phone from ringing."

The controversial reversal was followed by the most antagonistic move imaginable: signing Pro Bowl edge Trey Hendrickson practically as Crosby's plane left Baltimore.

But here's the uncomfortable truth: the Ravens landed on the most sensible outcome.

Crosby is a better run defender; Hendrickson is a better pass-rusher. They're not interchangeable. Yet acquiring Hendrickson for roughly the same dollars as Crosby—without surrendering two first-round picks—is a coup. The upgrade from Hendrickson to Crosby wasn't worth what Baltimore had to surrender.

There's also a scenario where the Raiders win. They had the cap space to absorb Crosby's deal without dismantling their free-agent class. Behind a record-breaking contract for center Tyler Linderbaum, their free-agent haul is impressive and could immediately reshape their identity under new head coach Klint Kubiak. Crosby may have had a change of heart about leaving Vegas—especially seeing how the Raiders have invested in the roster and eyeing the first overall pick, expected to be Heisman-winning QB Fernando Mendoza. Maybe he stays. Maybe this trade simply wasn't meant to be.

Why Kyler Murray and the Vikings Make Sense

Of all available quarterbacks, Kevin O'Connell and Minnesota picked Murray—a curious choice on the surface.

Given the options, I expected O'Connell and interim GM Rob Brzezinski to pursue Kirk Cousins, Daniel Jones, Aaron Rodgers, or even Tua Tagovailoa. All fit the "system QB" or "pocket passer" profile. Murray is different. He operates in the pocket but is equally—often more—dangerous outside of it.

Murray comes with questions about work ethic. His previous contract extension included a clause requiring four hours per week of game prep without video games, TV, or internet browsing. That was four years ago. His on-field play has remained streaky. After seven NFL seasons, the 28-year-old still exhibits moments of immaturity and thrill-seeking. The Cardinals, seemingly happy to see him go, watched their offense transform under Jacoby Brissett's steady (if boring) hand in the second half of last season.

This is supposed to be O'Connell's specialty: taking underachieving or underappreciated veterans and maximizing their potential. If anyone can help Murray, it's O'Connell. Murray is the real winner here.

But O'Connell showed fallibility with J.J. McCarthy, Minnesota's 2024 first-round pick, who had a rough debut season in 2025. So Murray becomes a fascinating test. Given the Vikings' financial structure—Murray gets the veteran minimum while Arizona pays him over $35 million—this probably won't blow up catastrophically. But if it fails, O'Connell could find himself on the hot seat by season's end. It's a risk worth taking. Given Murray's upside, this could be one of the league's most exciting QB-coach tandems.

The Great, Good, Bad, and Ugly

Great: The Seahawks Let Four Key Players Walk

It's wise for Seattle to let other teams pay the Super Bowl tax.

The Seahawks losing RB Kenneth Walker III, edge Boye Mafe, safety Coby Bryant, and CB Tariq Woolen hurts. Walker's signing with the Chiefs stings most, but Seattle can find value at running back through the draft or free agency (Brian Robinson, Kene Nwangu, Dameon Pierce).

The real test falls on Mike Macdonald, considered the league's best defensive coach, to rebuild the secondary alongside GM John Schneider. It's not like the Seahawks let every free agent go. They re-signed cornerback Josh Jobe and receiver Rashid Shaheed to modest contracts after letting them test the market. That's sound business. Seattle can't chase last year's success—they must build something new for 2026.

Good: The Chiefs Sign Kenneth Walker III for $43 Million Over Three Years

If one thing held Kansas City back, it was their inability to run the ball—their most fundamental issue.

Walker is the perfect solution. He had 10 runs of 20 yards or more last season. The Chiefs' entire running back room combined for one. Yes, it's an expensive fix. But by signing an elite RB, the Chiefs won't need to chase Notre Dame's Jeremiyah Love in the draft. They're free to take whomever they want at No. 9—perhaps Ohio State receiver Carnell Tate or safety Caleb Downs.

Bad: The Panthers Sign Edge Jaelan Phillips for $120 Million Over Four Years

Free agency at premium positions always means overpaying.

Teams extend or tag their best players before they hit the market. That's why All-Pro receiver George Pickens was franchise-tagged by the Cowboys. Phillips is a pressure specialist without gaudy sack numbers—he's never logged double-digit sacks—but he commands respect. The problem: he's injury-prone, with both ACL and Achilles tears in the past three years. He nearly retired in college. Carolina may regret this deal.

Ugly: The Bills Trade a Second-Round Pick for DJ Moore

You could justify the Bills sending a second-rounder to Chicago for Moore—but it's an overpay.

The Steelers sent just a swap of sixth- and seventh-round picks to acquire Colts receiver Michael Pittman. Given new Bills head coach Joe Brady's history with Moore in Carolina and the team's receiver desperation, the move made sense.

The deal got ugly when details emerged. Buffalo isn't just absorbing Moore's $24.5 million guarantee in 2026 and $15.5 million in 2027. They also guaranteed $15.5 million in 2028.

That's a long-term commitment to a player who will be 31 in 2027. Suddenly, this becomes a financial and draft-asset overpay. Moore has just one 1,000-yard season in the past four years despite playing all 17 games each year. Buffalo is betting big on reviving his production.

What We Still Don't Know

Where and when does Aaron Rodgers sign? It seems obvious he'll return to Pittsburgh, likely forcing everyone to wait until August. But expect the unexpected with Rodgers.

Which second-week free agents complete a Super Bowl roster? Teams don't always build juggernauts by spending massive sums. Often, they identify key value plays in this phase. Watch tight end David Njoku, tackles Jonah Williams, guards Joel Bitonio, linebackers Bobby Wagner and Matt Milano, and edges Calais Campbell and Cam Jordan.

What's the Cardinals' quarterback plan? Arizona has Jacoby Brissett and could draft a second-tier prospect like Alabama's Ty Simpson. Jimmy Garoppolo, who worked with new Cardinals head coach Mike LaFleur, is available. Trading for Mac Jones seems ill-advised given San Francisco's astronomical asking price. Perhaps Arizona's real play is waiting for the 2027 draft and Arch Manning.

How high will Jeremiyah Love go? The Chiefs signed Kenneth Walker, the Saints signed Travis Etienne, and the Commanders added Rachaad White. Several executives view Love as the draft's best prospect overall. The question is whether any team values a running back that highly—even the Titans at No. 4.

How much will George Pickens make? He'd be the No. 1 free agent if the Cowboys hadn't tagged him. Dallas has a history of contract mishaps. Pickens still hasn't agreed to an extension. What is Jerry Jones plotting?

Where will Crosby play in 2026? An NFL executive texted me that Crosby would "inevitably get traded elsewhere," but perhaps not urgently. If the Raiders still want to trade him and Crosby still wants to leave, we might not know his destination until training camp.