Super Bowl Favorites Emerge from Relative Obscurity

Through 14 weeks of the NFL season, the Los Angeles Rams have become favorites to win the Super Bowl—a position few saw coming. At 10-3 straight up and 9-4 against the spread, they've quietly delivered returns for bettors willing to get aboard. The problem: until now, few have.

That's changing fast.

"The Rams are quietly just a very good team," said Joey Feazel, head of trading at Caesars Sports. "It's only as of now that the public is finally starting to get on them. The Rams are starting to catch the public's eye a little bit."

The spotlight intensifies Sunday when Los Angeles hosts the Detroit Lions in America's Game of the Week on FOX—a clash with massive playoff implications and betting intrigue.

The Lions Face Existential Pressure

If the playoffs began today, the Rams would claim the NFC's No. 1 seed, tied with Seattle. Nobody predicted this in the preseason. Most thought the Lions or defending champion Philadelphia Eagles would lead the way. Instead, both have stumbled at crucial moments.

Detroit enters at 8-5 SU and 7-6 ATS, fighting for playoff survival in a murderous division where the Packers and Bears lurk above them.

"This is a big game with big implications," Feazel said. "The Rams are trying to stave off the Seahawks for the No. 1 seed, and the Lions are just trying to stay in contention for the playoffs."

Caesars opened the Rams as 4.5-point favorites for the 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday showdown. The line has stretched to -5.5 (-115) as of Wednesday afternoon, with early action trending toward a Rams win and Lions cover—a "need for that Super Bowl middle," in Feazel's phrase.

The real story is the total. Caesars opened at 50.5. It reopened Sunday night at 52.5 and has climbed all the way to 55.5—matching the season's highest total.

"The anticipation is for a lot of offense, that Lions coach Dan Campbell will roll it all out there. Bettors will be really engaged on same-game parlays, betting on touchdown scorers. This has the potential to be like that Chiefs-Rams game in 2018."

That 2018 contest saw the Rams escape with a wild 54-51 home victory.

"It's gonna be a really well-bet game," Feazel said.

The Patriots' Stunning Resurrection Draws Skepticism

The Rams weren't the year's biggest surprise. Try the New England Patriots at 11-2 SU—tied for the AFC lead after back-to-back 4-13 seasons.

Nobody saw this coming. Yet oddsmakers and bettors remain unconvinced.

New England beat Buffalo 23-20 in Week 5's Sunday night game, igniting a 10-game win streak (7-3 ATS). This Sunday's rematch in Buffalo opens with the Bills as 1.5-point road favorites, a line that's tightened to -1.

"This is a revenge spot for the Bills, and the Patriots are coming off their bye," Feazel said. "But similar to the Bears, I don't think everybody believes in the Patriots. We're seeing more Bills money coming in."

"I expect a lot more action by kickoff, with a decent amount of it on the Bills. The Patriots have a chance to prove they are really good. New England hasn't beaten many big teams but has beaten the Bills already, in a big spot."

Sharp Money Backs Bengals Against Surging Ravens

Professional bettor Randy McKay cashed the Texans to point-spread wins each of the past two weeks—both as road underdogs that won outright. This week, he's backing another underdog: Bengals +2.5 against Baltimore in a 1 p.m. ET Sunday kickoff.

"I trust the Bengals not to beat themselves, like Baltimore has recently," McKay said, referencing the Ravens' last two losses. "The market still likes Baltimore, but getting points here at home is an extra benefit."

Broncos-Packers: Defensive Showdown Draws Over Action

Denver's 11-2 record and 10-game win streak haven't earned them respect in the oddsmaking community. The Broncos are 5-8 ATS, failing to cover in three of their last four games—including twice against the cellar-dwelling Raiders.

Caesars opened Green Bay as 1.5-point road favorites and moved quickly to Packers -2.5, where the line stuck Monday afternoon.

"The Broncos aren't treated as a top team, despite their record," Feazel said. "Still, we're seeing a little more Broncos money at this point. But I expect two-way action as we get toward the weekend."

The total is drawing more intrigue. Caesars opened at 41.5 and has climbed to 43, with Over money flooding in.

"These are two of the best defenses in the league, so we've got a low total, which is drawing Over money so far."

Chiefs Fall from Grace as Public Finally Bails

Weeks ago, Kansas City was 5-4 SU and ATS yet still favored to win the Super Bowl. That's how much faith oddsmakers had in their second-half schedule.

Now the Chiefs are 6-7 SU and ATS, on the brink of playoff elimination.

Caesars opened K.C. -5.5 against the Chargers on Sunday at 1 p.m. ET, but the line dipped to -4 before settling at -4.5. More significantly, the public has jumped ship.

"Week in and week out, the Chiefs are one of our biggest-bet teams," Feazel said. "But this is the first week where we have seen a fade of the Chiefs. We've got more anti-Chiefs money than we've seen in the past. It's one-way traffic. The public is coming in on the Chargers."

The $25,000 Colts Miracle Bet

The Colts were 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS at the end of October. Since then, they've dumped four of five games and fallen to 8-5 SU and 7-6 ATS.

Then QB Daniel Jones—reviving his career in Indianapolis—suffered a season-ending Achilles tear in last week's 36-19 loss to Jacksonville.

Desperate times call desperate measures: signing 44-year-old Philip Rivers to the practice squad. And betting the Colts moneyline as massive road underdogs against Seattle.

One Caesars customer put $25,000 on Indianapolis at +525 to pull the upset against the 10-3 Seahawks.

If the Colts somehow pull it off, the bettor banks a profit of $131,250 for a total payout of $156,250.

You've got to respect that kind of faith. And perhaps Philip Rivers will have something to say about the odds Sunday.