Five weeks ago, the AFC South looked decided. The Colts dominated at 7-1, sitting comfortably ahead of pretenders. That comfort cost them—they traded two first-round picks to the Jets for cornerback Sauce Gardner, betting they'd cruise to the division title.

They didn't. The division is now a bloodbath.

At Week 14, Jacksonville and Indianapolis sit tied at 8-4. Houston, which started 3-4, has clawed back to 7-5 and won four straight. One game separates first from third place. Three crucial head-to-head matchups remain, and any of these teams could still win the division.

Sunday's Jaguars-Colts showdown in Jacksonville will likely determine who controls the AFC South for the final stretch. The winner gets the driver's seat with four weeks remaining. But Houston's momentum—and the weakest remaining schedule of the three—makes them dangerous.

Jacksonville Jaguars (8-4)

Playoff probability: 84%

Remaining schedule: vs. Colts (Week 14), vs. Jets (Week 15), at Broncos (Week 16), at Colts (Week 17), vs. Titans (Week 18). Combined opponent record: 30-30.

Head-to-head record: Beat Houston 17-10 in Week 3; lost to Houston 36-29 in Week 10.

The situation: Jacksonville has won three straight and four of five, though recent wins against Arizona and Tennessee don't carry weight. Sunday's home game against Indianapolis could make them the division favorites. Two soft games in their final four improve those odds further.

But there's a warning: Trevor Lawrence is 3-10 in December games for his career—his worst month—with 15 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. If Jacksonville loses Sunday, wild-card hopes remain strong, but division odds get cut in half. All three South teams rank in the NFL's top eight in turnover margin; whoever protects the ball wins the division.

Indianapolis Colts (8-4)

Playoff probability: 68%

Remaining schedule: at Jaguars (Week 14), at Seahawks (Week 15), vs. 49ers (Week 16), vs. Jaguars (Week 17), at Texans (Week 18). Combined opponent record: 41-20.

Head-to-head record: Lost to Houston 20-16 in Week 13.

The situation: The Colts have collapsed. They've lost two straight and three of four, all by one score, squeezing out only one win—in overtime against Atlanta—during their skid.

The 2012 Bears are the only NFL team in 25 years to open 7-1 and miss the playoffs entirely, finishing 10-6 and losing a wild-card tiebreaker. Indianapolis is playing with that ghost. Their remaining five opponents all have winning records—the toughest schedule remaining in the NFL. Daniel Jones is also dealing with a leg injury.

Head coach Shane Steichen is 1-3 against Jacksonville but must salvage a split. Even a 2-3 finish should get them to the playoffs, but there's no room for error. Sunday's trip to Jacksonville is essentially a playoff game.

Houston Texans (7-5)

Playoff probability: 59%

Remaining schedule: at Chiefs (Week 14), vs. Cardinals (Week 15), vs. Raiders (Week 16), at Chargers (Week 17), vs. Colts (Week 18). Combined opponent record: 27-33.

Head-to-head record: Lost to Jacksonville 17-10 in Week 3; beat Jacksonville 36-29 in Week 10; beat Indianapolis 20-16 in Week 13.

The situation: Houston has won four straight and five of six. The emergence of C.J. Stroud from injury, paired with the NFL's No. 1-ranked defense in points and yards allowed, has transformed a 1-4 start into legitimate playoff contention.

Houston has the softest remaining schedule of the three teams. A win at Kansas City on Sunday—no gimme with the Chiefs at 5-1 at home—sets up two winnable games that could put Houston at 10-5 with two weeks left. The Texans are already 4-1 in division play. Win at home against the Colts in Week 18, and they secure the tiebreaker over both Indianapolis and potentially Jacksonville.

Houston entered Week 14 as the sleeper team. Their run isn't over.