A division this competitive has drastically changed the playoff calculus. It took just 10 wins to claim the NFC West last season, but this year 12 victories could leave you in third place.

That's the reality facing three elite teams separated by mere half-games. The 49ers (9-4), Rams (9-3), and Seahawks (9-3) are locked in a three-way battle for divisional supremacy, with the third-place finisher still holding a 91 percent playoff probability according to The Athletic's simulator. All three rank in the top 10 of FOX Sports' latest power rankings, yet only one will hoist the division title.

The outcome hinges on two critical head-to-head matchups in the coming weeks. Seattle hosts Los Angeles in Week 16 before traveling to San Francisco in Week 18. The Seahawks already carry the burden of two losses to each opponent—a deficit that could prove fatal in tiebreaker scenarios.

Los Angeles Rams (9-3)

Playoff probability: 97%

Remaining opponents: at Cardinals (Week 14), vs. Lions (Week 15), at Seahawks (Week 16), at Falcons (Week 17), Cardinals (Week 18). Combined record: 26-34.

Head-to-head record: Lost to San Francisco 26-23 (Week 5); defeated San Francisco 42-26 (Week 10); defeated Seattle 21-19 (Week 11)

The situation: Despite a shocking loss to Carolina that snapped a six-game winning streak, the Rams control the easiest path forward. Facing the struggling Cardinals twice in their final five games provides a significant advantage. The schedule practically gifts them a route to the NFC's No. 1 seed and its accompanying first-round bye. Matthew Stafford faces his former team, the Lions, in Week 15, but the real opportunity comes in Week 16 at Seattle. Win that game, and the division is theirs to lose.

Seattle Seahawks (9-3)

Playoff probability: 95%

Remaining opponents: at Falcons (Week 14), vs. Colts (Week 15), vs. Rams (Week 16), at Panthers (Week 17), at 49ers (Week 18). Combined record: 37-25.

Head-to-head record: Lost to San Francisco 17-13 (Week 1); lost to Los Angeles 21-19 (Week 11)

The situation: Seattle has won six of seven games and boasts the NFL's best point differential at plus-133. That dominance means nothing without division wins. The Seahawks face the toughest remaining schedule of the three contenders—fourth-toughest in the entire NFL. Yet they own the advantage of a 5-1 road record, second only to New England's perfect 6-0 mark. Their three losses were each decided by a combined nine points, suggesting the Seahawks have room to flip close defeats into victories when these teams meet again in potential playoff rematches.

San Francisco 49ers (9-4)

Playoff probability: 91%

Remaining opponents: Bye (Week 14), vs. Titans (Week 15), at Colts (Week 16), vs. Bears (Week 17), vs. Seahawks (Week 18). Combined record: 27-21.

Head-to-head record: Defeated Seattle 17-13 (Week 1); defeated Los Angeles 26-23 (Week 5); lost to Los Angeles 42-26 (Week 10)

The situation: The 49ers enter their bye week in an unexpected but enviable position. Three of their final four games are at home—critical rest-and-recovery advantages. More impressively, San Francisco's defense has held its last two opponents to under 10 points despite significant injuries. Few teams lose their starting quarterback for eight games and remain in playoff contention. A 6-2 road record indicates the 49ers will be dangerous regardless of playoff seeding, likely growing healthier as the postseason approaches.

The stage is set for a dramatic finish. Don't rule out a divisional playoff matchup either.